Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 121158
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
558 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Today-Friday:
Relatively quiet day on Thursday with dry and below normal
temperatures. 850MB moisture starts to move back north tonight,
spreading first round of winter weather. Not keen on chances
tonight with low level dry air but will keep some going per
previous forecast. Chances of precipitation will ramp up during
the day on Friday, mainly east of i-35. Predominately light
freezing rain is expected, but rain is more likely in extreme
southeast sections by midday as temperatures should be just above
freezing.

Friday night-Saturday:
Precipitation ramps up even more late Friday night with upper jet
support. GFS and ECMWF both suggest some MUCAPE over the south
half of the forecast area, especially after midnight. Included a
slight chance of thunder with potential for changeover to rain in
extreme Southeast KS during the night. Rain/freezing rain mix
continues on Saturday with temperatures near freezing over much of
south central/Southeast KS during the day. Amount of accumulating
ice will depend a lot on precipitation rate with latent heat and
warm air advection being dragged to the surface potentially
offsetting weak cold air advection. For most areas, temperatures
cool enough Saturday night to change precipitation back to
freezing rain, but for far Southeast KS this is going to be much
less certain. Temperatures there will likely remain nearly steady
throughout the night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Still appears that the surface warm front will lift north on
Sunday with changeover to rain for a good part of the area.
However getting increasingly concerned about Central KS as good
dynamics interact with copious moisture and freezing temperatures
on Sunday-Sunday night. Could see significant ice accumulations
and appreciable accumulations of sleet/snow in Russell county
where temperatures are a bit colder. As a result expanded winter
storm watch to include all of Central KS. Dry slot will likely
help shut down precipitation late Sunday night/Monday across South
Central KS and parts of Southeast KS. Cooler than normal
temperatures forecast for Tuesday, warming well above normal for
Wednesday. GFS spreads small chances for precipitation back into
South Central and Southeast KS Tuesday night-Wednesday as
longwave trough axis rotates through the area. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Arctic high pressure that was centered over MT/Saskatchewan at 11Z
wl move ESE acrs the Nrn Plains today to keep NE flow prevalent in
all areas thru late tngt. The NE flow wl team w/ a stg cdfnt to
spread MVFR cigs acrs KCNU til mid-late mrng. Once the MVFR decks
clear out of SE KS there wl be no concerns until almost 13/12Z
when MVFR cigs & -FZRA may encroach upon KCNU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    36  22  29  25 /   0  10  30  50
Hutchinson      33  19  28  21 /   0   0  20  40
Newton          33  19  27  23 /   0   0  20  40
ElDorado        36  21  28  25 /   0  10  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   39  25  31  27 /   0  20  50  60
Russell         29  17  27  18 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      32  17  27  19 /   0   0  10  20
Salina          31  18  27  20 /   0   0  10  20
McPherson       32  19  27  20 /   0   0  10  30
Coffeyville     40  28  34  30 /   0  30  70  70
Chanute         35  24  31  27 /   0  10  60  60
Iola            34  23  29  26 /   0  10  60  60
Parsons-KPPF    38  27  33  29 /   0  20  70  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon
for KSZ072-095-096-098>100.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>071-082-083-091>094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS



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