Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261954
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
254 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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