Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 092326
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
526 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH DAILY
TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING A ROLLER COASTER EFFECT...AS THE NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS AND PUSHES A COUPLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS KANSAS. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY NICE WARM-UP FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE
HEARTLAND...HOWEVER ANOTHER WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF A SECOND FRONT RACING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUATION OF UP AND DOWN
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...GFS/ECMWF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
A UPPER LEVEL WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS ON SUNDAY THROUGH
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER POOR...MAINLY DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN KEEPING THE BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHED WELL SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE ANY MOISTURE RETURN WOULD BE MORE SHALLOW YIELDING EITHER
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. OTHERWISE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNALS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD
ALLOW MUCH WARMER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD ACROSS KANSAS
FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NORTH OF KSLN DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
KCNU BEING THE LAST TO SEE VARIABLE WINDS. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  65  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      25  64  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          24  62  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        24  62  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  65  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         24  60  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  64  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          23  58  26  42 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       24  62  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     23  60  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         21  57  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            20  56  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    21  59  25  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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