Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 210506
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1106 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Overnight:
Patchy dense fog has quickly developed in South-Central KS where
visibilities dropped to around 1/4 mile. The situation is somewhat
precarious in that a weak eastward-moving cold front is approaching
South-Central KS. Post-frontal winds become westerly around 10 mph
but temp/dewpoint differentials are 2-3F in most areas. Fog trends
will no doubt be watched closely.

UPDATE Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

This Evening:
Scattered showers & even a couple isolated thunderstorms developed
along a weak eastward-moving cold front that is venturing across
Southwest KS. This has prompted an update to assign "Scattered
Showers & Isolated Thunderstorms" to areas west of I-135 until 9PM.
The remainder of forecast is unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Water vapor imagery shows one impulse lifting over se ND with
another upper circulation lifting over west-central KS. Meanwhile,
stream of strong jet energy remains over southern CA. Messy
surface pattern with broad area of low pressure across the central
Plains with a weak low center over sw KS with another over far
eastern KS.

Will continue with some fog starting this evening over central KS
and will expand to cover all of south central KS later tonight.
This will be more of the radiational variety compared to the
stratus build down of last night. Confidence is high that we are
not looking at a widespread dense fog event like last night due
mainly to light west/sw winds which is not ideal for dense fog.

Next shortwave will move across the southern Rockies Sat and out
into the southern Plains Sat night. There is decent model
agreement that the surface low will track across OK with southern
KS in the wrap-around region of this fast moving system. Any
precip associated with this wave will fall as rain.

As far as temps go, well above normal readings are expected for
Sat with 60s possible for parts of southern KS. While a slight
cool-down will be on tap for Sun, temps will still be well above
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Pattern will remain progressive with another potent shortwave
forecast to move out into the Plains for Monday night into Tue
night. There is good model consensus that the surface low will
track along or just south of the KS-Nebraska border Tue. This
would place the best snow chances north of our forecast area,
mainly over Nebraska with far northern KS getting in on some of
the snow. So at this point not expecting much of an impact on
central or eastern KS as far as precipitation goes. Confidence is
high in a cooling trend behind this system, which is expected to
last through Fri. While we are not expecting any kind of arctic
outbreak, we will see below normal temps for the first time in a
while.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Its a somewhat messy situation w/ MIFG/BCFG causing pronounced
vsby fluctuations alg I-35/I-135. The complicating factor is that
a weak sfc trof/cdfnt is movg slowly E into SC KS. The trof/front
is xpctd to weaken & dissipate Sat mrng when weak SE flow onsets
in response to diffuse low pressure developing from SE CO to alg
the NM/TX bdr. Intensification of the sfc cyclone wl ocr over the
TX/OK Panhandles Sat aftn to cause SE winds to back twd the E Sat
aftn & place KS in a strengthening upslope regime. Cigs & vsbys wl
quickly deteriorate late Sat Aftn w/ SC KS lkly in LIFR status by
22/00Z while LIFR cigs & vsbys are xpctd in SE & Cntrl KS Sat Eve.
Subsequent TAFs wl provide greater detail on the deteriorating
trends, spcly the 21/18Z & 22/00Z issuances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    34  59  38  53 /  20  10  20   0
Hutchinson      34  56  35  52 /  20  10  20   0
Newton          34  57  36  50 /  20   0  20   0
ElDorado        34  59  37  52 /  20   0  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   36  60  39  53 /  10  10  30  10
Russell         31  53  31  51 /  30  10   0   0
Great Bend      32  53  32  51 /  30  10  10   0
Salina          32  55  33  51 /  30   0  10   0
McPherson       34  55  34  51 /  20   0  10   0
Coffeyville     41  62  42  54 /  10   0  50  20
Chanute         38  60  39  52 /  20  10  30  10
Iola            38  60  39  51 /  20   0  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    40  61  41  53 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS


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