Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 162338
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
538 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 208 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Warm above normal temperatures will continue this period across
Kansas with daytime highs in the upper 60s and 70s, as upper level
ridging builds across the central US. Meanwhile next weather system
is currently moving into the eastern Pacific and will dig into the
southwestern states for this weekend. Gulf moisture will begin to
stream northward ahead of this system on Sunday and increase Sunday
night. This looks to generate some elevated showers/thunderstorms
with some instability present aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Models show a upper level trough phased with the southern stream
system moving slowly eastward across the region for early next week.
A scattered line of showers/thunderstorms will be possible for
Monday and Monday night as this system moves eastward. Temperatures
will remain above normal across the Heartland for next week, with
weather pattern showing no signs of colder air pushing southward
anytime soon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Aviation concerns are expected to remain nil through the next 24
hours.

Upper low is situated over sw TX with upper ridging over the
northern Plains. At the surface, lee troughing remains in place
with a high over the Gulf Coast states. The upper low is expected
to continue to lif north and by 00z Sat will be over southern OK.
Low level moisture is too meager for precip chances this far
north with this system, so confidence remains high that vfr
conditions will continue. Did insert some wind shear late tonight
for KHUT-KICT-KCNU with winds just off of the surface expected to
increase to around 35-40kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Grassland fire risk could approach very high levels for Friday
afternoon over southeast Kansas. Otherwise grassland fire danger
levels look to remain lower for this weekend into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    38  71  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      37  71  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          38  70  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        39  70  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   39  71  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         35  72  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      35  71  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          37  72  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       37  71  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     39  70  46  67 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         39  70  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            39  70  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    39  70  46  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ053-070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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