Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191816
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
116 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The main challenge/concern is the trend/coverage in convection
today across the area and potential for locally strong/severe
storms and heavy rainfall. Mesoscale outflow has masked the
effective surface front with the boundary briefly moving south
into north central Oklahoma. Since midnight, a southeast flow has
returned north across the Kansas border at Winfield. The effective
surface front is expected to become better defined a bit further
north today from south central into east central Kansas. The
latest RAP/HRRR support the ongoing convection across southeast
Kansas early this morning where elevated CAPE values around 1000
j/kg will reside through sunrise in a region of modest moisture
transport. Even modest surface heating in the presence of weak to
little capping today along/south of the front is expected to
result in a quick renewal or increase in convection, becoming
quite numerous across the area by the afternoon. A visibly evident
shortwave upper trof in the water vapor imagery over the southern
Rockies early this morning will also lift northeast across the
area by this afternoon. While lower level wind fields will be
weaker, overall deep layer shear will increase in the modest warm
sector where MLCAPE values could approach 2000 j/kg. This should
support a few severe storms mainly along/southeast of the Kansas
turnpike. Periodic heavy rainfall will also remain possible across
much of the area, even on the cool side of the front across
central Kansas. The upper low will begin to open up and lift out
across the central/northern Plains on Saturday. A brisk and cooler
northwest surface flow will prevail with any lingering showers
diminishing or exiting the area by the afternoon. The weekend is
expected to finish out dry and seasonably mild on Sunday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

A significant upper trof rotating around the large scale upper
low over western Ontario will drop southeast across the Upper
Midwest Monday, amplifying the mean eastern CONUS trof as it
sweeps south and east across the Mississippi Valley through mid-
week. This will bring a chance for precip followed by much cooler
air to the area.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across the region
this afternoon and evening, as a strong storm system approaches
from the southwest. Thinking these chances will gradually shift
into eastern Kansas as the evening progresses, and exit eastern
Kansas toward midnight-3am. Meanwhile, IFR conditions will persist
through the afternoon and evening across central Kansas, north of
a sharp frontal zone.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  51  65  47 /  60  70  10   0
Hutchinson      67  48  63  45 /  60  70  10   0
Newton          70  49  62  46 /  60  70  10   0
ElDorado        73  52  64  46 /  70  70  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   76  53  66  47 /  60  70  10   0
Russell         57  43  60  43 /  70  70  20   0
Great Bend      58  44  61  44 /  60  60  10   0
Salina          63  48  61  44 /  70  70  20   0
McPherson       65  48  62  44 /  70  70  10   0
Coffeyville     75  60  69  48 /  70  80  20  10
Chanute         74  59  67  47 /  70  80  20  10
Iola            73  58  67  47 /  80  80  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    74  59  68  48 /  70  80  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ADK



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