Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240820
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW IS CHURNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE
MON AS WE GET INTO SOME GOOD DOWNSLOPE. MIXING TO 850MB SHOULD
GIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 50 FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-135.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THU. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WED
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR WED NIGHT INTO THU. JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR THU. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME FLURRIES FOR THU MORNING AS UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO
DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO BE ACTIVE AS THE PLAINS GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CARVING OUT A SHARP POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST AND SETUP STRONG RETURN FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...DRY LOW LAYERS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL EARLY
SAT MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SAT. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FRONTOGENESIS UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO SOME SLEET SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT`S LIKELY THE STORM TRACK
WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS CENTRAL
KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACT BY SOME HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS VEERING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

JAKUB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S STAYING ABOVE 40%.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. BY WED
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER SHOT OF
POLAR AIR INVADES THE REGION WED NIGHT...PROVIDING HIGHS ON THU
IN THE 20S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  20  47  17 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      42  21  46  15 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          43  21  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
ELDORADO        42  21  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  20  48  19 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         44  21  45  13 /   0   0  20  20
GREAT BEND      42  21  45  14 /   0   0  20  20
SALINA          46  23  46  15 /   0   0  30  30
MCPHERSON       43  22  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     41  21  48  21 /   0   0   0  30
CHANUTE         41  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
IOLA            42  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    41  21  48  20 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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