Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 280330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID-UPPER 90S & SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10-20 MPH INDUCING SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN
100-103 WITH THE HIGHER INDICES "FAVORING" NO PARTICULAR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HEADLINE: HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
& SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL AS MCPHERSON FROM 1PM-8PM ON TUESDAY.

THIS EVENING-TUE:
THE HIGHLIGHT ONCE AGAIN IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL VENTURE INTO
ADVISORY COUNTRY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS TUE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-DECK TROF THAT IS MOVING E TOWARD THE NORTHERN
& CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS
NE ACROSS MT LATE TONIGHT & TUE. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SE
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO REACH
CENTRAL KS TUE AFTERNOON. SE OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS & WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 95
TO 100 IN MOST AREAS...HEAT INDICES WOULD REACH 105-110 ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & TO A LESSER `DEGREE` SOUTHEAST KS. AS SUCH...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES CENTRAL KS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD VENTURE INTO CENTRAL KS TUE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER TUE NIGHT
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SE ACROSS KS & WITH MORE THAN AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE TUE NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHIFTING SE WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE
CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE NE ACROSS ONTARIO...THE FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO OK WHERE IT WOULD STALL IN AN
E-W MANNER WED NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE FROM NEBRASKA
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE WED NIGHT.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON THU & WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY E TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY S WINDS WILL RETURN &
TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD RETURN THU AFTERNOON & SLOWLY INCREASE THU
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER SUPPORT IS
FEEBLE...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEHAVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER HUDSON BAY & WITH STRONG
& MASSIVE UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI...A NW FLOW REGIME WOULD SET UP FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER HIGH
DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS AND NE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY GRAZE SLN-RSL.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT-RSL. INSERTED VCTS FOR
THESE SITES BEGINNING 22-01Z.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77 101  75  88 /   0  10  60  20
HUTCHINSON      77 101  72  87 /  10  20  60  30
NEWTON          76 100  73  87 /   0  10  60  30
ELDORADO        77  98  74  87 /   0  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  99  78  89 /   0  10  40  20
RUSSELL         75  93  69  84 /  20  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      75  95  69  85 /  10  30  40  30
SALINA          78  99  69  86 /  10  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       77  99  71  86 /  10  20  60  30
COFFEYVILLE     76  96  77  90 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         76  96  76  88 /   0   0  20  20
IOLA            76  96  75  87 /   0   0  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  96  76  89 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.