Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202332
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
632 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

tonight - Sat: Main concern is potential for elevated convection
late tonight. Not overly thrilled with 1200 UTC NAM/gfs aggressiveQPF
given confluent upper flow and most of warm air advection
resulting in thermal advection. That said, will maintain some
small pops late in the west where chances will be highest. Also a
bit of concern given at least marginally favorable mid level shear
to produce a couple of frisky storms with some small hail towards
daybreak. This threat would continue into sat morning. Not as
excited about fog, barring significant clearing and subsequent
influx of higher surface moisture, both of which seems less
likely. Temperatures problematic on Sat with extensive low clouds
and/or precipitation probable once again.

Sat night-Sun:

With surface winds veered a bit, should see some influx of low-
level moisture, especially in the west. This combined with
increasing winds, should result in warmer minimums. Western KS dryline
convection will likely attempt to move into the southwestern
sections of the area Sat night. How much of the area is clipped
will depend on how far north the surface boundary moves.
Temperatures on Sun again highly dependent on amount of clouds.
Backed off slightly, but could see it going either way.

Sun night-Mon night:

Chances for convection will likely increase as upper flow becomes
diffluent and low level moisture increases. Timing would favor
evening/overnight convection with dryline remaining west of
forecast area. Unclear exactly how far east precipitation would
go, but would expect it to be farther east on Mon night. -howerton

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

At least early in this period, good agreement between ECMWF/GFS
with Western US trough becoming well established. By Thu,
differences in strong of shortwave moving out of trough are
evident. ECMWF brings the bulk of this energy out on Thu night-
Fri, while GFS is weaker with wave and reloads trough by Fri.
ECMWF by Fri has closed low over Western KS. The downside is the
large differences in position of dryline beyond Tue. That position
will significantly impact pops and timing of pops. Maxes will
depend a lot on amount and timing of convective debris. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Ceilings are expected to gradually lower as we move through the
night and into the day tomorrow under weak but persistent moisture
advection. This will result in MVFR transitioning to IFR with
periods of LIFR anticipated across much of Central KS during the
day on Sat. There will also be low probabilities for
showers/storms through the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    56  74  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
Hutchinson      55  73  61  79 /  30  30  20  20
Newton          54  72  59  77 /  20  20  10  20
ElDorado        54  71  59  75 /  20  20  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   56  76  61  76 /  20  20  10  20
Russell         55  71  62  80 /  20  20  20  20
Great Bend      55  72  62  80 /  20  20  20  20
Salina          54  71  61  81 /  20  20  20  20
McPherson       54  71  61  78 /  20  20  20  20
Coffeyville     54  73  59  78 /  10  20  10  10
Chanute         52  72  58  78 /  10  20  10  10
Iola            52  73  57  78 /  10  20  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    53  73  59  78 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM



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