Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231755
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1255 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

MADE INITIAL UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
KS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AND LOOK TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
KS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED DOWN
HIGHS TODAY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
CONVECTION WILL BE AFTER 00Z.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: FIRST THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES OF
THE YEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND VERY HIGH/EXTREME GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PACIFIC COLD FRONT NOW DOWN INTO S-CONTROL KANSAS...WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER...CLEAR SKIES AND LOWERING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MAY YIELD AN AREA OF LOW
STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING IN MAINLY S-CENTRAL KS/FLINT HILLS. BY
EVENING...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED OVER SOUTHWEST KS...WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO ALONG THE OK/TX PANHANDLE
BORDER...AND A WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. THE CAP
WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...HOWEVER
AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
TRIPLE POINT TOWARD 00Z...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASING TO 45-55 KNOTS NOSING FROM WESTERN OK INTO EASTERN KS.
THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
305K SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
DARK...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
KS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 08Z. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR OF 45-55 KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL
OF UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS OF TONIGHTS WAVE...WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL KS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-
LEVEL COOLING WITH THIS FEATURE. A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
PRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...REACHING THE
OZARKS BY TUESDAY EVENING. IF THE SLOWER NAM-WRF DRYLINE MOVEMENT
VERIFIES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE IN THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST KS BEFORE PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND
STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL-TYPE
STORMS...HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE STORMS MATURE...THEY MAY ALREADY BE
PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. VERY GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE DRYLINE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ELEVATE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER (SEE FIRE
SECTION BELOW).

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A STRONGER COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. LINGERING RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST KS WED
PM/EVE BEFORE PUSHING EAST.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
THURSDAY...WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY
LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOISTENING WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS COULD GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STORMS TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG EARLY TUE MORNING.

COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN OK. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ELEVATED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS AND
SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 07Z. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SOME IFR CEILINGS GENERALLY AFTER 09Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-135. A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH KRSL AND KSLN
AROUND 13-15Z WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG/GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND A DRYLINE
PASSAGE...GIVEN VERY STEEP SURFACE-3KM LAPSE RATES. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15-25% ARE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AND 25-40% IN SOUTHEAST KS. THIS WOULD
YIELD VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST KS/FLINT HILLS...AND
POTENTIALLY EXTREME VALUES IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  56  77  44 /  10  40  10   0
HUTCHINSON      68  53  75  42 /  20  60  10   0
NEWTON          67  55  75  44 /  10  60  10   0
ELDORADO        68  56  76  44 /  10  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  56  79  44 /  10  30  10  10
RUSSELL         65  47  73  38 /  20  60  30   0
GREAT BEND      66  48  74  39 /  30  60  20  10
SALINA          64  52  71  41 /  20  70  30   0
MCPHERSON       67  53  74  41 /  20  60  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  56  77  46 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         67  55  74  46 /  10  50  40  10
IOLA            66  55  74  46 /  10  50  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  56  76  46 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$



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