Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 132112
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
412 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES. STRONG SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO BLAST ACROSS THE AREA ABRUPTLY ENDING SPRING/EARLY SUMMER
WEATHER WITH ONE LAST TASTE OF WINTER. SOLID ADVISORY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS SEVERE THREAT WANES
IN SOUTHEAST KS. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
EVENING WEST OF I-35...BUT CHANCES WILL PICK UP DURING THE NIGHT
AS ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES THROUGH...AIDED BY INCREASINGLY COLD
AIR ALOFT/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. ANTICIPATE GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER GOOD CHUNK OF AREA...BUT COMBO OF LIGHT RATES AND WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO GRASSY AREAS.
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT OR BELOW FREEZING HAVE UPGRADED
WATCH TO FREEZE WARNING...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TUE-WED:

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING...BUT SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH SKIES
CLEARING...APPEARS TO BE VERY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUE NIGHT. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WELL BELOW FREEZING...
HAVE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL. RETURN
FLOW RAPIDLY RETURNS ON WED...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ACROSS
THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. STILL SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF COLD FRONT BETWEEN GFS/ECWMF ON THU-FRI..BUT BOTH PORTEND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES SOMETIME IN
THU-FRI TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ANTICIPATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF I-135
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE ERRATIC WINDS. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS AROUND 00Z. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST...ALONG
WITH HIGH IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS. AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
OUT OVERNIGHT...SHOULD EVEN SEE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE OFFSET BY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NEXT SERIOUS THREAT WILL BE WITH RETURN
FLOW THAT DEVELOP ON TUE/WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  46  26  60 /  40  40   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  45  25  60 /  50  30   0   0
NEWTON          30  44  26  59 /  50  30   0   0
ELDORADO        31  45  26  58 /  40  50   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  47  25  60 /  40  50   0   0
RUSSELL         30  47  23  64 /  30  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      30  46  23  63 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          32  46  24  62 /  30  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  45  24  61 /  40  20   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  46  26  58 /  50  30   0   0
CHANUTE         33  44  24  57 /  50  50   0   0
IOLA            32  43  24  56 /  50  50   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    34  45  25  57 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083-091>094.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$







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