Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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913
FXUS63 KICT 170438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ONGOING MESOSCALE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS
BEING AIDED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHERLY 850
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS MCS MAY HAVE A FEW
STORMS TURN SEVERE THIS PM/EVE WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FEEDING
INTO THE SYSTEM.

THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WITH MID-LEVEL
COOLING AND STRONG ASCENT. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTHWEST OK EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE VEERING OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATING SUPERCELL-TYPE
STORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO TRAVERSE NORTHEASTWARD...INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TOWARD EVENING. IT`S UNCLEAR
HOW MUCH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH THE ONGOING MCS AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN SURFACE-BASED OR GO
ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...STORM
MERGER POTENTIAL COULD MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR DISCRETE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THAT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE NEVERTHELESS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAINLY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN FLINT HILLS
INTO THIS EVENING...WHERE STORMS MAY BE SURFACE-BASED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND EHI`S OF 1-3 M2/S2. THIS COULD
CHANGE WITH TRENDS THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
STORMS MAY BECOME LINEAR LATER TONIGHT AS THEY TRAVERSE INTO
SOUTHEAST KS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...BUT HAS LESSENED CONSIDERABLY FOR CENTRAL
KS WHERE THAT AREA MAY BE REMOVED FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS
PM/EVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS FROM THE ONGOING MCS AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO REACH AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE... ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER STORM SYSTEM. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA DRY SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY PM. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN KS AS THIS FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LESSER SHEAR. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER BEFORE
STALLING TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD RESULT IN A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED SPLIT UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONE UPPER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THIS MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AT MIDWEEK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...NORTH OF THE OLD SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES TO THE KANSAS REGION TOWARD THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN THE PERIOD COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE RAIN AROUND
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL
RESULT IN A CHAOTIC WIND FORECAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AT
THE START OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. THE UPPER TROF ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE DRY-LINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH
DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  58  76 /  90   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      57  83  55  73 /  90   0   0  10
NEWTON          57  82  55  73 /  90   0   0  10
ELDORADO        61  82  57  76 /  90  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  82  62  78 /  90  10  10  10
RUSSELL         53  82  49  70 /  50   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      53  81  50  71 /  50   0   0  10
SALINA          55  82  53  70 /  90   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       56  82  54  71 /  90   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  64  80 /  90  10  10  20
CHANUTE         64  83  62  76 /  90  10  10  10
IOLA            64  82  61  75 /  90  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  63  80 /  90  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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