Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 142023
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
223 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Low level moisture remains trapped over most of the CWA this
afternoon with some decent mid level over running. Lack of
subsidence aloft will keep the drizzle and fog in the the region
this afternoon and into the evening hours. This set up is strongly
entrenched over the region and this is the reason we have had such
a persistent cool and dreary weather conditions over the past few
days. Luckily, a strong upper level trough with jet stream support
and an attendant surface cold front will be coming through the
region overnight tonight and Wednesday morning. This will provide
the needed kick to get rid of the clouds and drizzle. This
approaching system will also provide the needed forcing and
instability to bring the chances for some showers and
thunderstorms during the early morning hours across much of South
Central and Southeast Kansas. Rapid clearing is expected behind
the front and all areas Kansas should expect sunny skies by the
afternoon Wednesday. Temperatures behind the cold front will be
near normal for this time of year.

Thursday and Friday...
The end of the week looks have sunny skies for the most part as
high pressure slowly moves to the east. Temperatures will remain
near normal for Thursday but as the high pressure system moves off
to the east Thursday night, winds will shift around to the south
and the pressure gradient will tighten up considerably. The change
in the orientation of the mean flow will open up the Gulf of
Mexico and will allow for strong WAA over the region. Most models
are now agreeing on a significant warm up for Friday with most
areas expected to reach the low 70s for the first time in weeks.
This warmup will only last a day as the next frontal system will
be moving into the region Friday night and will bring the
temperatures back down. Moisture transport will be present ahead
of the front but the best area for shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to be further to the east in MO and AR Friday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Saturday.....
Weekend forecast is highly depended on timing. Both the ECMWF and
GFS/GEFS show a strong cold front coming through Saturday morning
with strong CAA behind the front. The ECMWF is a few hours slower
but just as cold as the GFS. So confidence is high the
temperatures will take a tumble from Friday`s expected highs. The
main difference between the ECMWF and GFS is the ECMWF has some
trailing mid and upper level forcing and vorticity increasing the
chances of precipitation behind the front. This also increases the
chances for some snow as well as temperatures behind the front
will be cold enough to support snow in some areas. At this time
though, not confident with this and have kept POPs low enough to
keep the precipitation out of the forecast for the Saturday
afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday....
High pressure looks to dominate the region during this period with
some decent subsidence indicated. This will keep the skies clear
for the most part and temperatures look to hover near normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

LIFR and IFR will persist across much of the region today with low
level cloud cover across the area. Conditions should improve some
this afternoon and tonight, especially west of I-135, but should
still remain low- end MVFR or IFR. A cold front approaching from
the northwest will shift winds to northwesterly tonight, and will
clear skies from northwest to southeast in its wake. VFR
conditions will return during the morning hours on Wednesday,
with aviation concerns diminishing towards the end of this TAF
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  60  37  58 /  30   0   0  10
Hutchinson      45  59  35  57 /  20   0   0   0
Newton          45  58  36  57 /  30   0   0  10
ElDorado        48  59  37  58 /  50   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   52  60  39  58 /  40  10   0  10
Russell         40  58  33  59 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      41  58  34  60 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          43  59  34  58 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       44  58  34  57 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     54  62  39  61 /  80  40   0  20
Chanute         51  60  37  59 /  80  20   0  20
Iola            50  59  36  58 /  80  20   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    52  61  38  60 /  80  30   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...TAV


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