Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201806
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
106 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

The mid/upper level low will lift slowly northeast across
Nebraska today and into the Upper Midwest by late tonight. A brisk
and cooler northwest surface flow will prevail in the systems
wake today with any lingering showers exiting the area during the
morning. Clouds will be slow to scour in the moist cyclonic flow
around the departing surface/low level cyclone with even limited
heating tending to develop some diurnal stratocu in areas that
partially clear. Rapid clearing and diminishing winds this
evening/tonight will allow for a rather chilly night with lows
well below climo. The weekend will finish dry and warmer with
highs closer to mid- May climo. An upper trof rotating within the
developing mean longwave and around the upper low centered over
western Ontario province will drop south across the northern
Plains during Monday. While some elevated convection is possible
early Monday morning, modest moisture return ahead of the
associated surface cold front is expected to result in MLCAPE
values around 1200 j/kg by Monday afternoon. This in combo with
modest deep layer shear around 35 kts may support marginally
strong storms along the cold front as it moves south across the
forecast area late Monday afternoon and evening.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

A significant upper trof will continue to drop south and east
across the central CONUS which will amplify the mean longwave over
the eastern CONUS through mid-week. This will allow cooler air to
advect south across Kansas on Tuesday. Some light precip chances
will be maintained as well with generally dry weather and a
warming trend by Thursday as a shortwave ridge translates east
across the area. Troughing over the western CONUS and the
influence of minor perturbations which ripple downstream over the
Plains could give rise to slight precip/convective chances by
Friday and into the start of the holiday weekend.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

MVFR to low VFR ceilings will gradually dissipate early this
evening, along with stout west/northwest winds. Clear skies and
light winds expected tonight and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  45  74  55 /   0   0  10  30
Hutchinson      62  43  73  54 /   0   0  10  40
Newton          62  43  72  54 /   0   0  10  40
ElDorado        64  44  73  54 /   0   0   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   67  45  75  55 /   0   0   0  20
Russell         58  40  73  52 /  10   0  10  50
Great Bend      60  41  73  52 /   0   0  10  50
Salina          60  42  73  54 /  10   0  10  50
McPherson       61  42  73  53 /   0   0  10  40
Coffeyville     71  46  74  54 /  10   0   0  10
Chanute         69  45  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
Iola            69  45  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  46  73  53 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ADK



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