Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250349
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1049 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A diffuse frontal boundary/sfc trough axis may provide a focus for
some afternoon and early evening storms across portions of central
and south central KS. Better chances may arrive later tonight as
storm activity drifts eastward along and north of the H85 frontal
zone over southwest KS where low lvl moisture transport/H85 flow of
30-35 knots is progged. A few strong storms with gusty winds will be
possible although a few pockets of locally heavy rain are also
anticipated given precipitable water values aoa 2 inches with warm
cloud depths in the 3500-4000 meter range.

Mon-Tue...The frontal zone becomes more diffuse on Monday with a
stable post-frontal regime anticipated across much of the area.
Maintained some morning pops weighted over southeast KS with some
lingering showers along the veering H85 flow anticipated. After a
brief lull...an isolated afternoon storm or two may redevelop within
a moist/weakly capped airmass and maintained low pops mainly across
southeast KS but the general theme Mon-Tue is a stable post-frontal
regime with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

Wed...As the subtropical ridge retrogrades over the Central Great
Basin area toward the middle of the week, northwest mid/upper flow
will develop downstream across the central Conus. This may help
steer more subtle shortwave troughs over the region and maintained
low pops on Wed/Wed night with a continuation of seasonable
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The medium range model consensus continues to support
unsettled weather conditions as we move through the latter portion
of the week. Uncertainty grows as we move into the weekend as the GFS
is more aggressive building the mid/upper ridge back into the
central Conus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Main aviation concern will remain overnight storm chances.

Isolated showers/storms have developed generally west of I-135
over the last hour. Elevated parcels are very unstable with
minimal capping. With lack of decent forcing, tough to pin down
which sites have the best storm chances over the next few hours.
So won`t get cute and will just run with VCTS at all sites with
the exception of KCNU which will have a chance of storms a few
hours later. Still feel some of the activity coming off the front
range will have a decent chance to make it in here, generally
after 3am. Storm chances Mon don`t look as good as they do
overnight due to the front washing out and some subsidence behind
any MCS that pushes east Mon morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  92  72  92 /  50  20  20  20
Hutchinson      73  90  71  92 /  50  20  20  20
Newton          73  90  71  91 /  50  20  20  20
ElDorado        74  90  71  90 /  40  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   76  92  74  91 /  40  30  20  20
Russell         70  91  70  93 /  30  20  20  20
Great Bend      71  91  70  93 /  40  20  20  20
Salina          73  92  71  93 /  40  20  20  20
McPherson       72  90  70  92 /  50  20  20  20
Coffeyville     76  92  74  91 /  40  40  20  30
Chanute         74  90  73  90 /  40  40  20  20
Iola            74  90  72  90 /  40  40  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    75  91  73  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...RBL



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