Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200456
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

This afternoon, a strong cold front stretched from IA, thru North-
Central and SW KS, to the Ok Panhandle. High octane gulf moisture
continues to stream from N TX, across most of OK, to the generally
the ern half of KS. A cluster of thunderstorms has broken out along
the front from Srn Nebraska to North-Central KS a few of which are
severe. An isolated cell has also developed over Wrn Sumner County
& is moving NE toward Sedgwick County.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

This Evening/Tonight:
A sharp upper-deck wave that extends from an intense upper cyclone
centered over Hudson Bay across the Wrn Dakotas to NE WY will move
slowly SE across the Nrn Plains. This would kick the cold front SE
with the boundary venturing into SE KS very late tngt. With a very
moist and unstable airmass entrenched across the KS Neighborhood,
thunderstorms are sure to increase, but with the greatest 6K shear
displaced well to the NW of the front anticipate only "marginally
severe" convection tonight, i.e. hail around 1 inch and 50-60 mph
winds. The greatest threat is heavy rains as precipitable waters
around 2 inches reside across all areas, so will need to watch for
flooding.

Rest of the Weekend:
As the cold front continues its SE push toward, then across, the
MS Valley the thunderstorms would quickly end, vacating SE KS Sat
Morning. Much cooler weather would then spread SE across the Great
Plains with Sat`s maxes ~15F below normal & Sun`s 7-10F below
normal.

Mon & Mon Night:
Warmer weather quickly returns to the Great Plains as a broad but
fairly weak sfc trof develops along the Front Range which`ll push
the large sfc high further across the Ern U.S. The onsetting Sly
should increase sufficiently to push Mon`s maxes to near 90F along
the Wrn corridor. As the Wrn Plains sfc trof pushes E the return
moisture should be sufficient to `spark` thunderstorms across the
Srn Plains that may reach the OK/KS border late Mon Night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Tue-Thu:
An intense upper-deck short wave, that is scheduled to reach the
Pacific NW Mon Morning, will push E, then lift NE, over Alberta &
Saskatchewan Tue & Tue Night, respectively. This would push sfc
trof & eventually a cold front SE into the KS Neighborhood. With
the upper-deck trof undergoing cyclogenesis & eventually occluding
the trof & front would decelerate. This would translate into
thunderstorms occurring across the region throughout these periods.
The greatest upper support is N of KS so at this time the severe
potential is marginal, but stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Challenging aviation forecast over the next 6 to 12 hours with
thunderstorm activity vacating southeast Kansas over the next few
hours as a cold front continues to push east across the state this
morning. This frontal boundary has cleared terminals across
central and south central Kansas as winds have come around to the
north-northwest. Across western Kansas the pressure gradient
increases substantially with strong and gusty north-northwest
winds observe along this strong gradient. Expect this gradient and
strong, gusty winds to move into KRSL-KGBD around 07 UTC and
KSLN-KHUT-KICT a bit later this morning. The other concern is the
development of low clouds behind the frontal boundary with post
frontal cooler air beginning to filter in. With high clouds
advecting northward from Oklahoma and the sporadic nature of these
low clouds right now confidence is not high that widespread IFR or
lower ceilings will develop. However, thinking at least MVFR
ceilings will impact all terminals throughout the early morning
hours. Have included mentions of scatter clouds below MVFR to hint
towards the potential, but have opted to only go with prevailing
IFR ceilings at KCNU where dew point and temperature spreads are
already very low this morning.

As we progress through the late morning and afternoon hours, drier
air will begin to filter in scattering our clouds by the mid to
late afternoon hours. Also, the breezy northwest winds will
subside as high pressure moves over the area towards the late
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  78  58  83 /  90  10   0   0
Hutchinson      64  77  56  82 /  80  10   0   0
Newton          64  76  57  82 /  90  10   0   0
ElDorado        65  77  57  82 /  90  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  78  58  83 /  90  10   0   0
Russell         59  77  55  84 /  20  10   0   0
Great Bend      60  77  55  84 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          63  78  56  84 /  50  10   0   0
McPherson       63  77  56  82 /  70  10   0   0
Coffeyville     70  81  58  84 /  90  20   0   0
Chanute         69  79  57  82 /  90  20   0   0
Iola            68  78  57  81 /  90  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    69  80  57  83 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMR



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