Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 051153
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
553 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A shortwave trough was lifting northeast out of N. Mexico spreading
widespread rain across S. Texas and points downstream across the
Lower Mississippi Valley area and much of the Southeastern U.S.
while another shortwave trough was moving eastward across the
Northern Rockies.

As the mid lvl flow increases over the Central Rockies today, the
pressure gradient will tighten resulting in breezy southerly winds
returning to central KS helping to drive temperatures into the 50s.
The northern stream shortwave trough will drive a cold front south
across the region tonight with H85 CAA driving temperatures down.
Highs on Tuesday will struggle to reach 40 across central KS while
highs climb into the low 40s near the OK state line. Another
progressive shortwave trough is progged to move out of the Central
Great Basin area and into the Central Rockies late Tuesday night
spreading light snow downstream across the Central Plains States and
into central KS mainly after 08-10z. Recent trends have supported a
northward shift of the deeper isothermal layer and more favorable
snow growth zone lowering confidence for accumulating snow across
southern KS on Wednesday. Generally trended accumulations and pops
down near the OK state line and maintained a 2-3 inch accumulation
swath along the I-70 corridor. The progressive nature of the
shortwave trough appears to be the biggest limiting factor for
higher accumulations with only a narrow 3-5 hour window for
accumulating snow. A Winter Weather Advisory for snow may still be
needed, especially across our central KS counties.

Drier, subsident air will arrive Wednesday night with continued low
level cold air advection driving lows into the single digits across
much of central KS while teens will be common over southeast KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Surface high pressure will settle over the Central Plains on
Thursday-Thursday night allowing strong radiational cooling and
single digit lows across most of the area. Highs will struggle to
reach 20 over portions of central KS while highs rise into the
upper 20s near the OK state line. Low level southerly flow will
return on Friday-Saturday with moderating temperatures and dry
weather conditions. Maintained low pops on Sunday with a
progressive zonal flow but confidence in measurable precipitation
remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

brief MVFR-IFR conditions possible early this morning at KCNU as
modest low level moisture advects north just ahead of high level
clouds. Otherwise increasing winds expected gradient increases
ahead of front. Cold front will sweep across the entire forecast
area during second half of forecast. Went a bit faster than models
suggest for frontal passage tonight based on typical night time
bias. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  30  41  25 /   0  10   0  20
Hutchinson      53  27  40  22 /   0  10   0  30
Newton          53  27  39  22 /   0  10   0  20
ElDorado        54  29  40  24 /   0  10   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   55  31  42  26 /  10  10   0  10
Russell         55  23  38  18 /   0   0   0  50
Great Bend      55  24  39  19 /   0  10   0  40
Salina          56  25  40  21 /   0  10   0  30
McPherson       53  26  39  21 /   0  10   0  30
Coffeyville     53  34  43  27 /  10  20   0  10
Chanute         53  31  42  26 /  10  10   0  10
Iola            53  30  41  25 /  10  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    54  33  43  27 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...PJH



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