Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
550 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS RIDGE MOVE ACROSS BUT LIMITED
MIXING AND COLD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES. APPEARS THAT CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE FAR
WEST. LOOKS LIKE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT...SO LOWS COULD BE RATHER TRICKY. GIVEN OVERALL PATTERN AND
LIMITED CLOUDS...HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.

WED-THU NIGHT:

STARTING WED UPPER JET/WAVE WILL INCREASE LIFT WHICH IS MAXIMIZED
WED NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH PROBABILITY OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
SMALL...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW /IN THE VICINITY OF
AN INCH/ IN CENTRAL KS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO WANE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THU AS WAVE PUSHES THROUGH...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOIST WILL LIKELY KEEP DRIZZLE/FLURRIES GOING INTO THU NIGHT ALL
AREAS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

LIGHT/TRACE PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO FRI ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS...BEFORE DRIER AIR FINALLY SPIILS INTO THE AREA. DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUN WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. AT THIS POINT MODELS SHOW ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DO NOT GENERATE QPF...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS...LOW CHANCE PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUN.
OTHERWISE...INTIALIZATION GRIDS APPEAR REASONABLE. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

"LOW-END" MVFR CIGS (~2,000FT) WILL SLOWLY VACATE CNTRL & ERN KS
THIS MORNING AS INTENSE CYCLONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WRAP-AROUND
STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES ITS NE JOURNEY ACRS MI & THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THE STRATOCU WAS CLEARING KRSL JUST BEFORE ISSUANCE & WILL
BE VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z CYCLE. THE REMAINING TERMINALS
WILL REALIZE VFR STATUS BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED NW15-20
KT SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISHING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  22  39  32 /   0   0  10  50
HUTCHINSON      41  18  39  30 /   0   0  10  40
NEWTON          37  21  37  30 /   0   0  10  50
ELDORADO        39  20  38  31 /   0   0  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  22  37  33 /   0   0  20  50
RUSSELL         38  17  37  28 /   0   0  10  30
GREAT BEND      39  18  39  29 /   0   0  10  40
SALINA          38  18  37  29 /   0   0  10  50
MCPHERSON       39  18  38  30 /   0   0  10  50
COFFEYVILLE     40  22  39  34 /   0   0  20  50
CHANUTE         39  21  37  32 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            38  21  37  32 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    40  20  38  33 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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