Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220430
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1130 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

A deep upper-level trough has begun to dig south along the West
Coast with broad south-southwest flow out head across the central
Rockies and Plains, to nearly zonal flow across the Eastern
CONUS. Persistent lee troughing across the High Plains brought
another day of above normal temperatures and breezy south winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

The main forecast highlights through Saturday are the
continuation of the above normal temperatures through the end of
the work week and the arrival of a strong cold front this weekend
bringing chances for precipitation and a dreary weekend.

Tonight into the morning hours on Thursday, there is a chance for
a few showers and thunderstorms across central Kansas. However,
with moisture transport being on the weaker side of the spectrum
and nosing northeast into northern Kansas/eastern Nebraska, the
better chances for precipitation should remain northeast of the
area. These showers/storms are not expect to linger long into
Thursday morning and should begin to dissipate as slightly drier
air begins to advect into the region. Above normal temperatures,
by about 10 degrees, will greet the official start of fall
tomorrow and continue through the end of the work week. With
persistent lee troughing across the High and Central Plains,
expect breezy southerly winds to accompany these above normal
temperatures both tomorrow and Friday. Friday upper-level ridging
will continue to build across the Central and Northern Plains.
Therefore, expect one last day of temperatures in the 90s on
Friday, with mostly clear skies.

Fairly widespread precipitation is expected to develop across
western Kansas Friday night into early Saturday morning as the
leading edge of synoptic scale lift arrives and begins to push lee
troughing eastward as a cold front. By early Saturday, as the
moisture transport begins to veer out across central and south
central Kansas, precipitation should begin to impact areas west of
I-135. With continued moisture transport and the right rear
quadrant of the lead upper-level jet streak beginning to park
itself across much of central and eastern Kansas during the day on
Saturday, cannot rule out a few lingering showers/storms. Later in
the afternoon/evening on Saturday, the cold front is expected to
enter central and south central Kansas. Storms are expected to
develop along this frontal boundary as it pushes eastward. Given
the coupling between the mesoscale and synoptic scale forcing,
expecting fairly widespread precipitation to develop and impact a
good portion of the area. A few strong to marginally severe storms
look possible given 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE with a weakly capped
environment with 30 to 45 kts of 0-6km bulk shear. However, with
deep-layer shear vectors oriented parallel to the frontal
boundary, expect convection to grow upscale fairly quickly into a
squall line with strong downbursts and heavy rain being the the
main threats.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

The main forecast highlights from Sunday through Wednesday will be
the continued chances for showers and storms through the beginning
of the work week as the above mentioned cold front exits the state and
a welcome cool down!

Through Sunday morning/afternoon, chances for showers/storms will
diminish across central and then south central Kansas. As the
frontal boundary continues to push southeast of the region,
precipitation chances will begin to decrease across southeast
Kansas Sunday night into Monday. Upper-level energy is expected to
become cutoff over northern central portions of the CONUS.
Therefore, with weak impulses rotating about this cutoff low, we
could see a few periods of rain showers through the middle of the
work week. This cutoff energy will also allow for cloudy and cool
conditions to persist at least through the middle of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the overnight hours.
Southerly winds will slowly abate overnight which will allow for
some wind shear issues to develop at RSL and GBD for a few
hours close to sunrise.  This condition is not expected to last
long as the winds will mix back down to the surface by mid morning.
Winds will again become gusty by the late morning with wind gusts
ranging in the 20 to 25 mph range.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will
reign Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  91  68  90 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      71  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          70  90  68  89 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        70  90  68  89 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   70  90  68  90 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         71  92  69  91 /  20  10  10  10
Great Bend      70  92  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
Salina          72  92  69  91 /  20  10  10  10
McPherson       70  91  68  90 /  10  10  10   0
Coffeyville     67  90  65  91 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         67  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            67  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  89  66  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...ELM



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