Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 020729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CONUS. ONE IS
TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...AN
UPPER CIRCULATION IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
COLD FRONT NOW PUSHED DOWN TO THE TX GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING IMPULSE WILL COME TO AN
END THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FAST MOVING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH
OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA
AND KS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON SOME OF THIS MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL KS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TUE AS THIS IMPULSE
CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DEEPENING TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUE INTO
WED. HIGHS TUE WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH UPPER 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY WED WITH PLENTY OF SUN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PATTERN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND
DEEP UPPER LOWS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THU AND FRI.
THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
SAT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCH EAST ON SUN. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE WE
CAN GET BACK NORTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OVER THE GULF COAST
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NOT ALLOWING THE GOOD DEWPOINTS TO
WORK NORTH UNTIL SAT. WHILE THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY HIGH PLAINS...SAT AND SUN...TOUGH
TO GET SPECIFIC ON THE TIMING AND SEVERE MODE UNTIL WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT KIND OF MOISTURE WE CAN GET UP HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER SW KS...WILL SLIDE E-NE ACROSS KS/OK
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/CONVERGENCE...
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAY LEAD TO SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SRN KS EARLY MON MORNING. SO WILL INCLUDE
A VCSH MENTION FOR KHUT/KICT AND KCNU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOWERS
CEILINGS SOME OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CEILINGS TO AGAIN BECOME VFR FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
MONDAY...AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...AFTER THE WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  42  73  49 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      64  41  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          63  42  71  48 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        63  42  71  48 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  42  73  48 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         64  41  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      64  41  74  47 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          65  42  74  49 /  10  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       64  41  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     64  42  72  49 /  20   0  10   0
CHANUTE         63  42  71  49 /  20   0  10   0
IOLA            62  42  70  49 /  20   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    63  42  72  49 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...BDK



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