Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 290447
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1147 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The slow moving upper level low will move out of New Mexico
tonight and into the Southern Plains tomorrow. Low to mid level
moisture will be abundant as this system moves through bringing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through tomorrow.
Moderate to heavy rain will be possible at times. Otherwise mostly
cloudy skies will be observed. Given the nature of the
convection, widespread flooding appears unlikely, although the
threat for localized high water issues will be a threat, along
with modest rises in area streams/creeks/rivers. As for
temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the mid 40s across
central Kansas to upper 50s across far southeast Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the upper 40s across
central Kansas to around 70 degrees across far southeastern
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The slow moving system will continue to affect the forecast area
through at least Thursday morning before exiting the CWA by
Thursday night. Cloudy skies are also expected to continue through
Thursday morning with decreasing cloudiness from west to east
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. A short dry period is
expected Thursday night through Friday with partly cloudy skies.
However, this will be short lived as the next storm system moves
into the area Friday night into this weekend. Precipitation
chances increase across central Kansas first Friday night then
spread across the remainder of eastern Kansas Saturday. This
system will also slowly trek eastward but as of now with a more
southern track. As for temperatures, highs will start out in the
low to mid 50s Thursday, then increase a few degrees each day with
highs in the 60s by early next week. Lows will start out in the
upper 30s to lower 40s Wednesday night increasing into the mid to
upper 40s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Aviation concerns will remain widespread showers and storms along
with lower ceilings.

Upper low is still making its way across west TX with a large area
of upper diffluence and 850-700mb moisture transport resulting in
widespread showers and storms over central and south central KS.
This activity should continue for the next several hours and
should actually work back to the west overnight. Visibilities in
the heavier showers and storms are expected to be around 2sm with
ceilings bouncing between MVFR and IFR. Not out of the question to
see some LIFR cigs, especially west of I-135. Should see a
decrease in convection after 15z Wed as as dry slot moves across
areas along and east of I-135. However, even with the decrease in
precip, should continue with at least IFR ceilings at all sites
with the exception of KCNU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  59  44  53 / 100  80  80  30
Hutchinson      50  53  43  52 / 100  90  80  30
Newton          46  57  42  51 / 100  80  80  40
ElDorado        53  63  44  53 / 100  80  80  40
Winfield-KWLD   55  67  46  55 / 100  90  80  30
Russell         44  47  39  53 / 100  90  80  30
Great Bend      46  47  40  52 / 100  90  80  30
Salina          48  49  42  52 / 100  90  80  50
McPherson       48  52  42  51 / 100  90  80  40
Coffeyville     57  70  50  58 /  90  80  80  40
Chanute         54  68  49  57 /  90  80  80  50
Iola            53  67  49  57 /  90  80  80  50
Parsons-KPPF    56  69  50  58 /  90  80  80  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...RBL



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