Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230504
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1204 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH AROUND 09Z
BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A RAPID DEMISE TO
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER NO AIR MASS CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AND WITH MORE
INSOLATION...HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THU.

FRI-SAT...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH A
RECORD OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE A
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS TIMING ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
MAINTAINED MID POPS MON-MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TUE-WED WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS
FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY DURING THE MORNINGS HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  77  56  88 /  60  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  76  55  86 /  70   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  77  55  84 /  60  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  77  56  88 /  60  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  78  55  86 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         51  75  53  83 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  75  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          56  75  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  73  53  82 /  30  20   0   0
CHANUTE         57  73  54  82 /  30  30   0   0
IOLA            57  73  54  81 /  30  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  73  53  82 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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