Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200738
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
238 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong gradient winds and strong flow progged through the pbl will
require a wind advisory across much of central and south central KS
today with sustained speeds of 25 to 30 knots common across much of
central and south central Kansas. Wind gusts may approach 40-45
knots at times across portions of central KS. The wind advisory
headline was expanded slightly south and east from it`s previous
location and extended through the evening hours. It`ll be hard to
rule out a few sprinkles or light rain showers through at least the
morning hours when looking upstream across the southern High Plains
and again tonight as another subtle shortwave trough lifts out of
the southwest. Elevated parcels tonight are weakly capped around
H8 and we could see a few showers/storms through at least the
evening hours and maintained low pops across much of the area
tonight with continued mid lvl waa/isentropic upglide. We`re
still expecting the more widespread activity to arrive on
Saturday as a cold front moves across the area.

A mid/upper trough and associated PAC front will emerge from the
Rockies on Saturday afternoon. Models continue to be in fairly good
agreement although there remains some subtle timing differences with
the fropa. Shear/buoyancy profiles continue to support severe storms
and a fairly rapid transition into a squall line with damaging winds
gusts becoming the primary severe threat across much of south
central into southeast Kansas late Sat afternoon/early Sat evening.
Given the progressive nature of the front, the flooding threat
should be more localized but PWATs are progged to rise above 200
percent of normal ahead of the front.

Sunday...Shortwave ridging will build over the central Plains in the
wake of the mid/upper trough bringing dry weather and seasonably
mild temperatures on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

A progressive northwest mid/upper flow regime will be in place at
the start of the period with the first fropa progged on Mon.
Another more robust cold front will arrive later in the week on
Thursday but the better Gulf moisture will remain well south of
the area. The front will usher in more seasonable air but the
chances for precipitation will remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

The main aviation concerns for this TAF period will be some wind
shear in the early morning hours and strong, gusty winds during
the day and evening on Friday.

In the early morning hours, area airports can expect some wind
shear, with southerly winds around 40-45KT possible around 2000
ft. This shear should dissipate around sunrise. During the day on Friday,
low pressure strengthening over the high Plains will cause
southerly winds to increase across the area. By early Friday
afternoon most sites will see sustained wind speeds in the
vicinity of 30mph, with gusts near 40mph possible, especially for
airports in the western portion of the CWA. These winds will
likely persist through the afternoon and evening hours, though may
slightly decrease towards the end of the TAF period (~5Z) for
locations in the west (KRSL and KGBD).

Visibility should remain good, with VFR conditions expected to
remain in place through the next 24 hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong southerly winds will result in a very high grassland fire
danger this afternoon for much of central and south central
Kansas. Strong southerly winds will linger into the evening hours
and a very high grassland fire danger may result this evening
across portions of central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77  66  74  46 /  10  20  70  40
Hutchinson      76  66  74  43 /  10  10  60  20
Newton          75  66  72  44 /  10  20  70  40
ElDorado        77  66  73  46 /  10  20  80  60
Winfield-KWLD   77  66  75  46 /  10  20  70  70
Russell         79  67  70  39 /  10  10  30  10
Great Bend      78  67  71  40 /  10  10  20  10
Salina          79  66  74  43 /  10  20  60  10
McPherson       76  66  73  42 /  10  20  60  20
Coffeyville     77  66  77  51 /   0  20  50  90
Chanute         76  65  75  50 /   0  20  60  90
Iola            76  65  75  50 /   0  20  60  90
Parsons-KPPF    77  66  76  51 /   0  20  60  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM CDT Saturday for
KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...MWM


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