791
FXUS63 KICT 051125
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
625 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence has increased in a severe weather outbreak on Monday
  afternoon and Monday night.

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms over southern Kansas this
  morning while lingering across parts of southeast Kansas
  through much of the afternoon.

- A strong or severe storm may develop over far southeast Kansas
  on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A shortwave trough lifting northeast over the Southern Plains was
evident on moisture channel imagery and RAP analysis late this
evening. As this system continues moving northeastward we may see
some showers with embedded storms impact southern Kansas this
morning while portions of southeast Kansas may have some lingering
activity into the afternoon hours. As the previous forecaster noted,
poor lapse rates and marginal instability will preclude strong or
severe storms today.

As we move into Monday, a vigorous mid/upper trough over Northern
California tonight is progged to pivot eastward over the Central
Great Basin/Northern Intermountain area on Sunday and into the
Rockies Sunday night. This trough will then emerge negatively tilted
across the Central and Northern Plains on Monday. The left exit
region of a 120kt H25 jet is progged to nose into the Southern and
Central Plains late in the day with large H5 height falls and
increasing large-scale forcing for ascent developing downstream
in diffluent mid/upper flow. The cap is progged to weaken in the
19-20Z window with the initial development over central and
northern Kansas as the lead wave lifts rapidly northeastward
into the Northern Plains. The initial storm mode in central and
northern KS may be more linear with the initial development as
the upper jet/deep layer shear vectors are oriented more
poleward similar to the dryline position. But as you move
southward into southern Kansas and especially Oklahoma, a more
discrete mode may be favored during the late afternoon and
evening hours in the 22Z-08Z timeframe as the westerly mid/upper
jet overspreads the area. A strengthening LLJ during the
evening hours will result in elongated cyclonically curved
hodographs and this is when we expect to have the best potential
for discrete supercells capable of very large hail, damaging
winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. The GFS is
much more progressive mixing the dryline eastward and bringing
an end to pcpn by 06Z but the other deterministic models would
support a slower scenario which was favored.

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on
Tuesday as the mid/upper trough lifts over the Northern Plains
with westerly flow developing over the Central Plains. Dry and
mild conditions are anticipated with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

The mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains will propagate south
and eastward arriving back over the Central Plains late on Wed. Sfc
cyclogenesis in eastern OK may allow for some moisture return into
southeast KS where a round of storms could be possible during the
afternoon hours. Better chances may remain just south and east of
the area but it`ll be hard to rule out a brief strong or severe
storm in far southeast KS on Wed afternoon.

Thu-Sat...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated once again on
Thu with another frontal boundary settling south across the area.
Most areas are expected to remain dry with seasonable highs in the
low 70s anticipated. A subtle shortwave trough is progged to rotate
over the area on Friday as northwest mid/upper flow develops in it`s
wake but a dry forecast will remain in place with seasonable
temperatures anticipated. As we move into the beginning of the
weekend, we`ll continue to see northwest mid/upper flow across the
Central Plains with seasonably mild temperatures and dry weather
conditions anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Numerous showers and a embedded storms will affect southern
Kansas and linger the longest over southeast Kansas for this
morning into the afternoon hours. Low cigs in the MVFR category
will overspread mainly southern Kansas today. Low level moisture
will begin to increase later tonight which looks to drop the low
clouds in the IFR category overnight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ