Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 112315
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
615 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

A significant piece of the northwest CONUS upper trough is progged
to eject out across the Northern Plains late Thursday into Friday,
while additional energy digs into the Pacific Northwest. Lee
troughing and southerly winds will allow for temperatures to climb
much above normal by Friday into Saturday, ahead of a cold front.
The initial Gulf moisture return looks shallow and will therefore
maintain a dry forecast through the daytime Friday. The models show
the cold front settling southward into southern/eastern Kansas by
Friday afternoon/evening, before the front lifts temporarily back
north as a warm front by Saturday morning, ahead of the upstream
strong shortwave moving through the Great Basin/Central Rockies.
Elevated convection looks possible Friday night into Saturday
morning across Central Kansas, given the 850 moisture transport
and isentropic lift signal. The strong upper trough energy will
eject eastward across the Central Plains late Saturday into
Saturday night, allowing the cold front to surge southward through
the forecast area, as moisture/instability/shear improve ahead of
the front. Thunderstorms appear likely ahead of the surging
front, with a few strong-severe storms possible especially
Saturday afternoon/night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

A drier Pacific-type airmass will build in behind the departing cold
front from Sunday through early next Week. Temperatures will drop
back to near seasonal averages. The large surface anticyclone
building into the region, should keep the Gulf suppressed through
at least Tuesday with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Increasing southerly flow will prevail across the area later
tonight through Thursday with gusts over 25 kts along/west of
the I-135 corridor by midday. Otherwise, generally clear to few
clouds expected. There is a small chance for some MVFR radiational
fog across southeast Kansas during the predawn hours, though for
now will omit from the terminals.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  79  61  86 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      48  79  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          48  77  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        48  77  62  86 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   49  79  62  87 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         48  81  57  72 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      48  82  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          47  78  61  79 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       47  78  60  80 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     47  77  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         46  76  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            46  76  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    47  77  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...KED



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