Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 190452
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1152 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Quiet weather conditions expected for tonight across Kansas, however
current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave over
New Mexico. This wave will move eastward into Kansas during the day
on Thursday with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms possible
ahead of this upper level wave. Most of the region should see dry
weather for Friday along with warmer temperatures. Upper level
ridging will build over the region for Friday night into Saturday,
however isentropic lift of decent moisture with-in 305-310K
layer could spark off elevated showers and storms Saturday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Upper level ridge axis will move slowly eastward this period with
southwest flow aloft spreading across Kansas. This upper level
pattern will be combined with persistent low level wind trajectories
from the south/southeast next week, which will result much richer
gulf moisture streaming northward and remaining over the region.
Long range models show a series of upper level shortwaves ejecting
northeast across the central plains from parent trough axis over the
Western CONUS. This should result in an active weather period for
Central and Southeast Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

An approaching storm system will bring lowering ceilings to much
of Southern Kansas on Thursday where MVFR will prevail. Widely
scattered light rain showers will also be possible during the day
although higher probabilities will remain south across OK. MVFR
cigs may linger into Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    48  65  53  73 /  10  30  30  10
Hutchinson      46  64  52  72 /  10  20  20  10
Newton          46  64  52  71 /  10  20  30  10
ElDorado        46  64  53  72 /  10  40  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   49  65  54  74 /  10  40  30  10
Russell         47  67  51  71 /  10  10  20  10
Great Bend      47  65  51  71 /  10  20  20  10
Salina          46  66  52  71 /  10  10  20  10
McPherson       46  64  51  71 /  10  20  20  10
Coffeyville     48  68  53  73 /  10  40  40  20
Chanute         47  68  53  71 /  10  30  40  20
Iola            47  67  53  71 /  10  20  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    48  68  53  72 /  10  40  40  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM



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