Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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862
FXUS63 KICT 151123
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
523 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy extending from the
Ohio Valley through the TX Panhandle and to an upper low near
Baja. At the surface, a high extends from the southern High Plains
into the Great Basin.

Shortwave energy will continue pushing southeast today as the
surface high also shifts south. This will setup some decent
downslope today which will allow highs to be a few degrees warmer
than they were Thu. Attention will then turn to the upper low that
is currently situated near Baja. There is decent model agreement
that this feature will start to lift out tonight and will track
across the southern Plains Sat. The eastern half of KS looks to be
in the wrap around region of the wave as it quickly lifts off to
the northeast. This system has a good chance of bringing much of
eastern KS our first measurable precip since Nov 29th. Precip
looks to fall as all liquid with temps remaining above normal.

Pattern will remain active with a positive oriented shortwave
moving across the southern Plains Mon with additional energy
sliding over the northern Plains. Not expecting much in the way of
precip as the better moisture stays south of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Upper pattern will briefly flatten out for Tue into Wed which
will allow for a couple more days of above normal temps. Both
ECMWF and GFS remain consistent in significantly colder air
spilling south across the Plains starting Thu. The best chances
for winter precip with this wave look to be northeast of the
forecast area, over the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great
Lakes. Currently have high confidence that below normal temps will
be in place by Fri at the latest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

VFR conditions the next 24 hours. VFR stratocumulus will exit
eastern KS to the east early this morning. Winds will be breezy
out of the southwest late this morning through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  30  59  40 /   0   0   0  50
Hutchinson      54  30  59  37 /   0   0   0  30
Newton          51  32  58  38 /   0   0   0  50
ElDorado        50  33  58  39 /   0   0   0  60
Winfield-KWLD   52  32  59  41 /   0   0   0  60
Russell         57  29  60  30 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      57  30  60  31 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          55  31  60  36 /   0   0   0  20
McPherson       54  30  59  36 /   0   0   0  30
Coffeyville     49  33  59  41 /   0   0   0  90
Chanute         49  33  58  40 /   0   0   0  80
Iola            49  33  58  40 /   0   0   0  80
Parsons-KPPF    49  32  59  40 /   0   0   0  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK



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