Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 190840
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS BUILDOWN. CIRROFORM CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTH...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTH BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON TRENDS. CENTRAL KS MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING DEVELOPS. LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH BETTER MIXING IS PROGGED WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

LEE TROUGHING/SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS WHILE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVOR RAIN AT THIS TIME. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND THE FLINT HILLS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AROUND MIDWEEK...BEFORE
IT EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS WERE
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TIMING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH MORESO THAN THE GFS. RIGHT NOW...AT FACE VALUE...THE ECMWF
DRY SLOTS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
OCCURING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST EAST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND
THAT THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS AWAY...UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN CENTRAL KS
ON THURSDAY. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...SO THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK FOR LATER UPDATES ON OUR THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MELTING SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A MOIST PBL WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND A CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
BACKED OFF ON DENSE FOG AS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY HELP TO MIX
OUT SOME OF THE STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY RETURN ON FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      38  28  46  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          37  29  45  35 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        38  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  30  47  37 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         42  25  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      40  26  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         39  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            38  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    40  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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