Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES IS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVING
QUICKLY EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A FEW SPRINKLES WERE NOTED...WHICH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM
INCREASED INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL HEATING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE CENTERED WELL NORTH.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN QUICKLY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES QUICKLY EAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING ON THE FRONT IS RATHER
CONSISTENT...WITH IT ENTERING CENTRAL KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ON UPPER IMPULSE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER TRACKING ALONG THE KS-OK BORDER. THIS
FEATURE HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT 88D RETURNS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS EXPECTED. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURGE IN
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER 00Z IN THE
4,000-6,000FT RANGE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  54  78  52 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      73  52  76  50 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          71  53  75  51 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        72  54  77  51 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  56  78  54 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         74  49  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  49  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          73  50  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  51  75  50 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     70  55  76  52 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         70  54  76  49 /  10  10  20   0
IOLA            69  54  75  48 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  54  76  50 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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