Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 041742
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING...PER WATER VAPOR
CHANNEL...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. WIDELY SEPARATED STRONG-SEVERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LEE
TROUGH AXIS...WHERE STRONG DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED. MEAN FLOW AND BUNKERS RIGHT MOVER STORM MOTION VECTORS
INDICATE VERY SLOW...MAINLY SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THIS CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD KEEP IT WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM EARLY
JULY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. A 35-40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...THEN VEERING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS OVERNIGHT IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE MAY BE ONGOING CONVECTION MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY COULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BACKS TO MORE SOUTHERLY WITH
THE UPGLIDE SHUTTING DOWN. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT FROM A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
PROGGED TO MAX OUT AT 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES ON THE GFS (EVEN HIGHER ON
THE NAM-WRF). GIVEN THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE AXIS AND FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (WITH EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES) WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT MID-UPPER HEIGHTS MAY RISE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
PERHAPS CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD FRIDAY. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO RETREAT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS...AND WITH RICH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT...PERIODIC
EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY INTO POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS OUR AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH
SOUTH WINDS.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE`LL BE EXCELLENT WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE WITH
SCT 4,000-5,000FT CU & S-SE WINDS 7-13KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  71  93  74 /  10  30  30  10
HUTCHINSON      90  70  94  73 /  10  30  30  20
NEWTON          88  70  92  72 /  10  30  30  10
ELDORADO        88  70  91  73 /  10  30  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  70  92  74 /  10  30  40  10
RUSSELL         90  70  96  72 /  10  20  20  40
GREAT BEND      90  69  96  72 /  10  30  20  40
SALINA          90  70  95  73 /  10  30  20  30
MCPHERSON       89  71  93  72 /  10  30  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     88  69  89  73 /  10  20  40  10
CHANUTE         87  68  89  73 /  10  10  40  10
IOLA            86  69  89  72 /  10  10  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    88  69  89  73 /  10  10  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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