Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202350
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
650 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Large mid-upper high will continue to dominate the south-central
CONUS during the period, while subtropical moisture and embedded
vort lobes circulate around its periphery. The shortwave trough off
of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon (per water vapor imagery) is
progged to push eastward across the Northern Intermountain region
and Northern Plains Saturday into Saturday night, which will begin
to flatten the upper high. Persistent lee troughing will allow the
low-level thermal ridging to intensify some Thursday, where 1000-850
mb temperatures are progged to max out and persist into Friday and
Saturday. Even though surface dewpoints may drop a couple or few
degrees through this late week period, this should be offset with
increased high temperatures. Resultant heat indices of 105-110
degrees are slated for Thursday and Friday, and perhaps again
Saturday. Will expand the ongoing heat headlines westward to cover
the rest of central Kansas for Thursday and Friday, and may
eventually need a headline for Saturday also.

Scattered thunderstorms should develop to our northwest along a cold
front Saturday afternoon. Some of this convection may propagate
eastward into central/south-central Kansas Saturday night. Until
then, look for the torrid stretch to continue with a lack of rain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to press eastward
across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions Sunday
into Monday. Medium range models were in good agreement in showing
the associated front pushing further southward into Kansas/Missouri
Sunday into Monday, where it may stall and oscillate north/south
some Tuesday-Wednesday. A high precitable water axis will exist
along the front, with the upper ridge flattened. This will support
periodic chances of thunderstorms across the entire forecast area.
Above normal temperatures on Sunday should fall back to closer to
seasonal averages for Monday-Wednesday (Highs low-mid 90s).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Sly winds wl cont to gust 20-25kts acrs Cntrl & SC KS thrut the
ngt. Wl be watching for LLWS potl when the 06Z edition is
processed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77 101  77 102 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      77 104  77 104 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          77 100  77 101 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        77  99  77 101 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   77 100  77 100 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         76 105  75 105 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      75 105  75 105 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          78 105  78 105 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       77 104  77 104 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     75  98  75 100 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         76  97  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            76  97  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    76  97  76  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ033-048-050-051-
067>069-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ049-052-053-
070>072.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ032-
047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS


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