Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 142105
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Morning fog and low cloudiness across southern KS is all but gone,
scouring out from west to east as drier downslope flow increases
across the forecast area. This has led to well above normal temps
remaining across the area for the late afternoon into the early
evening hours and overnight.

Still expect to see one more warm day on Thu for portions of Srn KS,
as a strong cold front begins to push south across the forecast area
for the daytime hours. Expect to see quite a temp contrast across
the forecast area for Thu, as the front makes slow progress into srn
KS for Thu afternoon, which will make the temp forecast tricky, with
placement of the front key on how warm or cool max temps will be.

Current model trends suggest that the cold front will push into
central KS for the morning hours, but will make slow progress into
srn KS for Thu afternoon. Downslope flow ahead of the front and
compressional heating suggests that max temps in srn KS will climb
into the lower 70s, even with expected mid level cover. Mid level
cloud cover associated with the mid level wave may lead to a few
sprinkles, but low layers remain fairly dry. The currently record
highs for Thu are a little lower, so could see a couple of record
max temps broken across srn KS for both Wichita and Chanute (see
climate section below).

The strong cold front will push south into OK by Thu evening.
Convergence ahead of the front may also lead to some light rain
chances across SE KS by Thu evening/night as the colder air moves
in, but moisture ahead of the front is limited, with better lift and
dynamics staying well to the north of the area.

Much colder air, (almost 25 degrees colder) will move into the area
for Fri, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure moves across the area.

Expect a brief warmup for the weekend, with breezy S-SW winds
returning to the region with good downslope flow again, as the
surface high pressure area quickly moves to the east of plains. This
will lead to temps again climbing above normal.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Another strong cold front, similar to todays, will drop south across
the area on Mon or possibly early Tue. Some uncertainty on the
timing of the front, as medium range models differ on how deep the
mid level trough over the Rockies will be, which creates some timing
differences, when it comes to the front pushing south.  This front
will lead to the next surge of colder air to move into KS going into
the middle of the week. Lots of uncertainty on how far south the
front will go, before stalling, possibly along the KS/OK border.

Medium range models seem to suggest a few bouts of light or very
light  precip over the top of the stalled boundary across SE KS with
temps having a big impact on the type of precip, either being
rain/snow or freezing rain. Even some hints at a thunder chance for
SE KS for Mon in the warm sector before the front arrives.

.fire weather: Breezy S-SW winds will continue across southern KS on
Thu.  Dry cured grasses and gusty SW winds will lead to a very high
grassland fire danger for areas south of highway 50.

A strong cold frontal will push south across the region Thu night.
The north winds on the backside of the front will create a very high
grassland fire danger across south central KS late Thu night.

Ketcham


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Low clouds will continue to scour out from west to east across
southeast Kansas for this afternoon with high clouds continuing to
stream overhead. Low clouds will spread back northward into
southeast Kansas for late tonight along with some reductions to
visibilities. Meanwhile a weak frontal boundary will sink slowly
southward across central Kansas Thursday morning.

Jakub

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Breezy S-SW winds will continue across southern KS on Thu. Dry
cured grasses and gusty SW winds will lead to a very high
grassland fire danger for areas south of highway 50.

A strong cold frontal will push south across the region Thu night.
The north winds on the backside of the front will create a very high
grassland fire danger across south central KS late Thu night.

Ketcham

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Record high temperatures for Thu, 2/15:

Wichita:  72 set in 1947
Chanute: 72 set in 1947

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  74  25  40 /  10  10  10   0
Hutchinson      47  70  22  39 /  10   0  10   0
Newton          48  69  21  38 /  10  10  10   0
ElDorado        51  72  24  39 /  10  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   55  75  27  41 /  10  10  10   0
Russell         42  62  18  39 /   0   0  10   0
Great Bend      45  66  19  39 /  10   0  10   0
Salina          44  65  20  38 /   0   0  10   0
McPherson       46  67  21  38 /   0   0  10   0
Coffeyville     55  76  30  40 /  10  10  20   0
Chanute         53  74  26  38 /  10  10  10   0
Iola            52  73  25  38 /  10  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    55  74  28  39 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham
CLIMATE...Ketcham



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