Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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684
FXUS63 KICT 180530
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1130 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

The main challenge the next few days will be periodic small
chances for very light, mainly trace precip in a rather active
pattern aloft. Lead shortwave ahead of the main upper trof
which will be moving toward us from the southwest CONUS will
lift north over Kansas late tonight and Wednesday. Lift and
moisture depth probably only sufficient for a few sprinkles
though chances for measurable precip is rather low. However
low level moisture in the southerly flow will increase as the
main upper trof moves out across the central/southern Plains
Wednesday night through Thursday. While the deeper moisture
and lift will reside just east of the forecast area, small
chances for light QPF/rain should develop across southeast
Kansas. Patchy drizzle in fog may also develop further west
across much of the forecast area late Wednesday night. The
next upper trof will move across the central/southern Rockies
late Thursday night and lift out across the central Plains
late Friday through Friday night. Deep moisture is lacking
across the area, though modest chances for light rain or
drizzle will exist late in the week mainly north of Wichita
across central Kansas. Temperatures, while averaging well
above climo, will be stunted from their max potential with
a bit more cloudiness expected.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

A very potent upper low is progged fairly similarly in the
medium range, deepening and tracking east across the southern
Plains over the weekend. The current trends would keep the
majority of the precip just south of Kansas. Also the thermal
profiles look relatively warm, though considering it is such a
strong/dynamic system in late January, a few degrees colder
and it becomes a snow impact for someone.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Main Aviation Hazard: Low stratus/fog potential.

A vort lobe over the southern High Plains, will lift northward
across central Kansas toward daybreak through early afternoon Wednesday.
Mid-levels will moisten as this wave moves through, which could
result in sprinkles or very light rain over south-central Kansas.
However, not expecting restrictions to visibilities/ceilings.

The CNU terminal will be on the western edge of low stratus and
fog potential through Wednesday morning, and have included a
TEMPO group with MVFR conditions there for now. Otherwise,
southerly flow and moisture advection in the boundary layer should
result in low stratus development area-wide Wednesday night, most
likely after 03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    33  51  39  52 /  10  10  10  10
Hutchinson      29  50  37  51 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          30  50  37  51 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        31  52  38  53 /  10  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   34  52  40  54 /  10  10  10  10
Russell         27  47  35  47 /   0  10  10  10
Great Bend      27  47  35  48 /   0  10  10  10
Salina          28  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10
McPherson       28  50  36  51 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     32  52  41  54 /  10  10  20  10
Chanute         31  51  39  53 /   0  10  20  10
Iola            30  51  38  53 /   0  10  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    31  51  41  54 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMC



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