Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 062347
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
547 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Broad upper trough remains extended from Quebec through the Great
Lakes and into the central Rockies, with a number of impulses
rotating through this feature. One of these is diving south across
eastern SD with additional energy approaching central CO.

Another surge of cold air is expected to push through tonight and
will provide some of the coldest air of the season so far with
highs only topping out in the 30s for Thu with widespread teens
for lows Thu and Fri mornings. Mid-level baroclinic zone looks to
setup across western KS/western Nebraska late Thu night with some
warm advection along it. However, airmass still looks very dry so
will continue to leave mention of precip out. Upper trough will
continue to translate east on Fri leaving strong northerly flow
over the Plains for Fri as yet another piece of energy dives down
the backside of the trough Fri night across the western Great
Lakes into the Ohio Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Upper pattern will finally start to turn more westerly for Sun
which will promote downslope and above normal temps.
At this time, Sun looks to be the warmest day through this
forecast package with highs topping out around 60. Still decent
model agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in diving another
impulse out of southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba and into the
northern/central Plains. This feature will carve out another deep
upper trough over the eastern Conus for the start of the work week.
This will return the area back to seasonal temps. Will keep
forecast dry through these extended periods, but not out of
question some light precip maybe added with later forecasts as the
upper wave dives across eastern KS Mon night-Tue. However,
confidence is high that we are not looking at any kind of
impactful winter event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Mid level clouds
across NE KS at this time, continue to sag south with some widely
scattered mid level radar echoes. Think most of the returns are
virga, as the mid level clouds move over the top of very dry low
layers. So will not mention any sprinkles or flurries.

The other concern, is a subtle wind shift from the NW to N as
another reinforcing shot of cold air moves south across the region
overnight.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    19  35  19  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      18  34  19  49 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          18  33  18  47 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        19  33  18  47 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   21  35  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         15  34  19  50 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      16  34  19  51 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          17  34  18  49 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       17  34  17  48 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     23  35  18  46 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         21  34  18  44 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            20  34  18  44 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    22  35  18  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...Ketcham



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