Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 132012
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
312 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Isolated storms may form near the lee trough over the central High
Plains this evening, but should stay northwest of central Kansas.
Mid-level ACCAS or perhaps isolated weak convection may form late
tonight into Thursday morning in central Kansas (mainly
near/north of I-70) in response to isentropic lift/moisture
transport, on the eastern edge of the elevated mixed layer.
Otherwise, southerly flow should lead to milder low temperatures
tonight, especially in central Kansas.

Lee trough development will strengthen Thursday into Friday, ahead
of an upper trough sliding into the western states/Rockies. Most, if
not all, of the forecast area is expected to remain dry with the
elevated mixed layer providing a thermal cap. Most models appear too
aggressive in increasing surface dewpoints, given the recent dry
spell, and are underplaying the strength of the diurnally gusty
southerly winds both afternoons.

The brunt of the energy with the western CONUS upper trough is
progged to eject northeast out over the Northern Plains Saturday
into Saturday night. A consensus of the models brings the
associated cold front southward into central Kansas Saturday, and
southern Kansas Saturday night before stalling the boundary.
Warmer than normal highs are likely south of the front again on
Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are indicated along the front,
beginning late Saturday afternoon, with relatively higher
probabilities/coverage Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Upper troughing is progged to reload across the western CONUS early-
mid next week, with the GFS/GEFS appearing a bit more progressive
with this trough. Downstream, upper ridge development appears
likely somewhere between the Plains and the Mississippi Valley.
Sunday into Monday could be tricky with regards to high
temperatures, with the GFS faster to lift the front northward and
the ECMWF/GEM models considerably slower. Would expect noticeable
cooling in central Kansas Sunday, with potentially lesser cooling
in the south. A few thunderstorms will remain possible near the
front through at least Sunday night.

Persistent southerly flow ahead of the western CONUS upper trough
should yield increased Gulf moisture northward into the region
toward midweek. Storm chances may increase toward mid-late week,
as the western CONUS upper trough gets closer to the Plains, but
confidence on timing/location is highly uncertain this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Quiet VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Breezy south winds expected this afternoon western half of KS,
subsiding some this evening, and then increasing again and
becoming gusty by mid-morning Thursday. Will see areas SCT-BKN
clouds around 10,000-15,000 ft AGL spread east across the area the
next 24 hours. Could possibly see a few light showers and/or
sprinkles from this activity later tonight into Thursday morning,
but thinking most of this will fall as virga.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      61  94  67  94 /  10   0  10  10
Newton          61  92  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        60  92  66  92 /   0  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   60  92  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         63  97  68  95 /  10  10  10  10
Great Bend      63  96  67  95 /  10   0  10  10
Salina          63  96  69  95 /  10  10  10  10
McPherson       61  94  67  94 /  10  10  10  10
Coffeyville     57  90  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         57  89  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            57  89  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    58  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK



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