Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 081833
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
133 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

EAST/WEST ORIENTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK
SOUTH...THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ALL
INSTANCES...LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY SOUTH- CENTRAL KS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN ZONE OF RICHER 700MB MOISTURE AND
MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL GETS BETTER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...AS 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN CONUS RIDGE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES LIKELY
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ENCROACH
FROM THE WEST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

HOT SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN BY FRI-
SAT...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THINKING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE LOW...ALTHOUGH ECMWF SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
HALF OF KS LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT IS ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT
STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AREAWIDE. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF COOLER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A DEEPER EASTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CUMULUS IN THE 5-6K FT RANGE MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BUT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SCT CIRRUS PERSISTING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  89  68  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      65  88  67  92 /  10  10  30  30
NEWTON          64  87  67  89 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        64  87  66  89 /  10  10  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  89  68  92 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         63  88  67  95 /  10  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      63  88  67  95 /  10  10  30  30
SALINA          64  89  67  91 /  10  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       64  88  67  91 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     65  88  68  89 /  10  10  20  30
CHANUTE         64  87  66  87 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            63  86  66  87 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    64  88  67  88 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.