Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LEE TROUGHING AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. THE MOISTURE PLUME
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INITIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE SPREADING FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE AXIS
WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER MOST
UNSTABLE PARCELS STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
TO OVERCOME. ACCAS OR ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
KS TUESDAY MORNING...AND WEST OF I-135 WEDNESDAY MORNING AIDED BY
WEAK NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DECENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO MESH WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR LOW-MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED NORTH/NORTHEAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (PER GFS/ECMWF/GEM)...WITH
AN ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL SHUNT THE MID-
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPORARILY. HAVE STORM CHANCES
AT 30-50% AS THIS SYSTEM/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY-FRIDAY. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TEMPORARY FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH WINDS RESUMING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECTING NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY-SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

THERE`LL BE EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS THRU TUE MRNG &
LKLY BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE KS RGN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  57  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      83  56  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          82  56  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        81  56  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  57  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         86  58  89  62 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      85  58  89  62 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          84  56  88  61 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       83  56  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     82  54  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            81  53  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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