Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211730
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. INITIALLY VISIBILITIES HAD FLUCTUATED GREATLY BUT SINCE
AROUND 1 AM 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN PREVALENT. OVER
THE REST OF KICT COUNTRY NW 5 TO 15 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHILE UPSTAIRS EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (MORE SPECIFICALLY ALTOSTRATUS) CONTINUES TO SPREAD DUE
EAST ACROSS KS AND OK. THE NW WINDS AND THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAVE ENABLED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA TO
STABILIZE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE MID
30S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

THIS MORNING:
THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS THE DURATION OF THE DENSE FOG ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
WITH DRIER AIR MIGRATING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...COUPLED WITH
THE EXPANDING MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BELIEVE THE 9 AM EXPIRATION
WILL HOLD.

REMAINDER OF TODAY THRU FRIDAY:
FORECAST FROM THE PAST 3 DAYS IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS OVERALL
PATTERN IS BEHAVING MUCH AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED. THE UPPER-DECK
TROF DIGGING OVER THE FAR DESERT SW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN/SHARPEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES EAST FROM AZ LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE CREATURE REACHING TX EARLY FRI MORNING. SUCH A TRACK WILL
KEEP THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SNOW SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE SW OF OUR
NEIGHBORHOOD THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES
SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

*CORRECTED*

THIS WEEKEND:
WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROF SURGING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH A DEEP
AND VERY STRONG(!) NW FLOW REGIME QUICKLY RETURNS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THE VERY STRONG NW UPPER-DECK FLOW WILL SEND A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT`LL STRENGTHEN AS IT SPRINTS SE FROM THE
DAKOTAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHARACTER REACHING
THE UPPER AND MID-MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST
INCREASING LIFT PROJECTED TO OCCUR JUST NE-E OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IA TO MO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR JUST TO THE NE AND E OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN REMOVED
FROM SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SURGE ACROSS KS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THE LOWER-DECK FLOW WOULD POSSESS A SUFFICIENT NW COMPONENT
TO KEEP MAXES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

*CORRECTED 4TH LINE OF TEXT.*

MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AS THE EVER DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROF SURGES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST...A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY E OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT TO FORCE THE VERY STRONG
NW FLOW REGIME SLOWLY E OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. SUBTLE
LOWER-DECK TROFFING WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS SUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RESULT AS THE
LOWER-DECK FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE W TO SET UP EXCELLENT DOWNSLOPE.
HAVE RAISED MAXES A FEW DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MID-UPPER 50S LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF CENTRAL KANSAS...THEREFORE
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS THURSDAY MORNING. IF CEILINGS DO DROP...VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY DROP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  27  44  27 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      46  26  43  25 /  10   0  10   0
NEWTON          46  27  43  26 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        48  28  43  26 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  29  45  26 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         45  21  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      44  24  41  23 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          46  23  41  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       46  26  42  25 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  44  26 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         48  28  43  25 /   0   0  10   0
IOLA            47  27  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    50  29  44  25 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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