Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221739
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1239 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Strong shortwave continues to make progress across most of SE KS at
this time. Wraparound showers/drizzle to the N-NW of the shortwave
in the trowal axis will continue to shift slowly east this morning
with precip winding down during the late morning. Could see some
drizzle this morning just to the west of the main vort center, so
will include this mention in the grids/zones, but the threat of
heavy rainfall has come to an end. There`s some lingering low-land
flooding and a few river flood warnings in SE KS, so will cancel
the rest of the flood watch with this issuance.

With the rain ending, expect a coolish weekend with gradual clearing
from west to east this afternoon, with clear skies tonight through
Sun, as a weak upper level ridge moves across the area with north-
northeast surface flow.

Main surface ridge axis looks to move across the forecast area on
Sunday morning, which may lead to some patchy frost over Central
Kansas given low temps expected to be in the middle 30s. But expect
a pleasant weather day on Sunday with light winds and moderating
seasonal temps.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Zonal flow will lead to dry and warm conditions for the start of the
work week. Low level moisture will be slow to return, with a weak
shortwave moving across the northern plains, leading to a cold front
sagging south across the area for Tue. Not expecting a lot of shower
activity along the front as it pushes south, as better moisture will
remain to the south of the area. Low level moisture does finally
begins to overrun the front by Tue night, which suggests a post
frontal overrunning shower chance for most locations as the front
pushes into OK.

Medium range models suggest the flow pattern will gradually shift to
more of a W-SW flow pattern by the middle of next week, which will
lead to thunderstorm chances increasing for Wed/Thu as low level
moisture quality improves. Moisture transport and isentropic lift
increases by Thu morning for a widespread shower and embedded
thunderstorm chance with warm advection.  A rather significant
shortwave looks to move out of the Rockies on Thu afternoon/evening,
with an unstable airmass for a potential severe storm chance.  Given
the shear and instability, all facets of severe weather may exist by
Thu Eve, especially over srn KS. stay tuned.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Mid-level clouds will gradually clear out of the area from west to
east with VFR conditions prevailing for all TAF sites during the
next 24hrs. North winds will decrease and switch around to the
south on Sunday as surface high pressure slides east of Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  38  67  46 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      59  37  68  47 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          58  37  66  46 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        58  38  67  46 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   56  38  68  46 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         61  36  70  49 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      59  36  69  49 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          61  38  69  49 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       59  37  67  47 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     54  39  68  44 /  20  10   0   0
Chanute         55  39  67  44 /  20   0   0   0
Iola            56  38  67  44 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    54  39  68  44 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ



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