Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141150
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
650 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Storms developed Thu afternoon along a cold front and aided by a
weak upper impulse that was likely the result of remnant storm
activity. Outflow from evening storms pushed through the entire
forecast area and helped keep activity going early this morning.

Regional 88Ds and water vapor imagery show the most noticeable
upper impulse currently situated near KDDC and remaining nearly
stationary. Currently expecting at least some scattered activity
to continue this morning as some weak 850-700mb moisture transport
remains in place. Short range models remain consistent in the
most widespread activity staying over southeast KS this morning,
where another weak upper wave is expected to pass. Confidence in
shower/storm trends this afternoon and evening are low. Feel that
southern portions of the forecast area will have the better
chances this afternoon/evening due to being closer to what will be
left of the front. Temps today should be a few degrees cooler
than the last couple, due to most of the forecast area being north
of the weak front that pushed through overnight.

Upper ridging is expected to maintain over the Rockies and into
the high Plains through the weekend. There is good model agreement
that the better precip chances will be tied to an upper wave that
is currently over central CO. This feature is expected to slowly
drift east and by Sun morning will be over western KS. Both the
GFS and ECMWF circulate this feature over western KS/eastern CO
through Sun, keeping the better rain chances west of the forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Upper ridge over the Rockies/northern Plains will break down by
Mon morning has shortwave energy tracks across southern Canada.
This will push a cold front across the northern Plains and will
attempt to make it into the central Plains. At this time will
continue with the thinking that it will not make it into our
forecast area. Above normal temps look likely through these
extended periods, especially for Tue on as upper ridging builds
over the southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Numerous SHRA with sct TSRA continue across the SE fourth of KS
early this morning. Locally +TSRA are likely to cause MVFR vsbys
near the OK border but with the heaviest convection occurring S of
KICT & KCNU will keep both terminals in VFR status out of the
starting blocks. MVFR decks (~2,500ft) are possible across SC & SE
KS toward 18Z but should persist for only ~3 hours. All areas will
be VFR from mid-afternoon onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  71  90  70 /  30  20  10  10
Hutchinson      89  69  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
Newton          89  69  90  68 /  30  20  10   0
ElDorado        89  69  89  68 /  30  20  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   93  71  91  70 /  30  20  10  10
Russell         87  67  90  67 /  20  10  10  10
Great Bend      88  67  91  67 /  20  10  20  10
Salina          88  69  92  69 /  20  10   0   0
McPherson       88  68  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
Coffeyville     92  71  90  69 /  40  40  20  10
Chanute         88  70  89  68 /  40  30  20  10
Iola            87  68  89  67 /  40  20  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    90  71  90  68 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS



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