000
FXUS63 KICT 151746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BUT NOT AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FROM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-70. SHEAR REMAINS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE MOST LIKELY MODE. STILL SEEING A
DECENT SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE WITH-IN UPSLOPE REGIME
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS/WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY MIGRATING EASTWARD ALONG 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. AGAIN LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY MODELS SHOW INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS FROM RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WHICH
SHOULD PROHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
KEEP THEM CONFINED TO WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIER
COOLER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MATERIALIZE OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL BY THE LONG MODELS REMAINS
CONSISTENT THAT AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD LOOMS FOR
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO MONDAY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE COMBINATION OF RICH GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND APPROACHING
DYNAMICS FROM UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TO OCCUR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
COOLER DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
KCNU AND POSSIBLY KICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AS AN
UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS KCNU CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. ANTICIPATING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES SURGING NORTH AND DIURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR WILL BE THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS IN VICINITY OF KHUT-KRSL...BUT COULD ALSO AFFECT
AREAS FURTHER WEST SUCH AS KICT-KSLN. MVFR SHOULD GET INTO KCNU
BY LATE EVENING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  64  80  65 /  10  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      85  63  80  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          84  63  80  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        83  63  80  64 /  10  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  62  79  65 /  20  30  10  10
RUSSELL         90  61  82  65 /  20  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      89  62  82  64 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          87  63  82  65 /  10  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       85  63  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     82  63  78  64 /  30  30  10  10
CHANUTE         81  62  77  63 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            81  62  77  63 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    82  63  78  63 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$