Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 300452
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WHILE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVY. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR KMHK TO KHUT TO JUST
SOUTH OF KPTT AT 03Z...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH GREATER WICHITA IN
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH REMAINING OR RENEWED CONVECTION
THOUGH GENERALLY LESS THAN 40 MPH.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN HINDERED DUE TO
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL ALLOW SOME SURFACE
HEATING TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WITH LESS THAN FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR ALOFT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW. ALSO WE WILL TRIM
OFF WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE FLOOD WATCH AND KEEP IT CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR TONIGHT...WHERE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY NEW
FLOODING COULD OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A MORE ROBUST PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH COOLER BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE WORKING NORTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND FORCED INTO A 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER
DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION WHICH HAS NOT OCCURRED IN SOME TIME. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR KANSAS WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER
MODELS DO SHOW AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE EPISODES
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY
DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS
MID-AMERICA.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...THOUGH PUSHING STEADILY SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE DAWN. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BE MORE
PREVALENT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH
LIFTING AND IMPROVING TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND WILL
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  71  52  76 /  30  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      57  71  50  76 /  30  10   0   0
NEWTON          55  69  51  76 /  40  10   0  10
ELDORADO        59  70  52  75 /  50  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  72  53  75 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELL         53  70  46  78 /  50  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  70  47  78 /  40  10   0   0
SALINA          56  70  48  77 /  40  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       55  70  50  76 /  30  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     62  71  55  74 /  30  10   0  10
CHANUTE         61  71  55  73 /  30  10   0  10
IOLA            61  70  55  73 /  30  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  72  55  73 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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