Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 170754
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
254 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Today:
Storms should be exit Southeast KS shortly after daybreak. Good
mixing will result in advisory criteria wind late this morning and
through the afternoon. Some concern that clouds will rotate into
far northern sections. This might produce a stray shower or
thunderstorm, but chances for measurable appear slim. Relatively
quiet weather is also expected tonight.

Thursday-Thursday night:
This period is looking increasingly likely for high impact
weather. Warm front will be roughly along Highway 400 in the
morning. Some hint that scattered convection may occur early which
could be either surface based in the vicinity of, or south of the
front, or elevated just north of the front. Good wind profile
would support severe hail and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out
in the tiny zone of co-located shear/instability in the immediate
vicinity of the front. This front is expected to move north during
the day...but models vary on how far. Main show will likely wait
until late afternoon when storms erupt along dryline. Whether the
warm sector lights up ahead of dryline is questionable. NAM wind
profiles are a classic textbook supercells, with all modes of
severe weather in play. GFS wind profile is not quite as ideal,
but would still easily support supercells. Anticipate that storms
will likely congeal in the evening, and given sagging east/west
boundary and low level jet, will set stage for heavy rain and
flooding. Flooding is currently looking more likely south of Highway
50, but that could change depending on amount/location of
convection and where effective boundary sets up. Good moisture
will remain in place with dryline remaining west of the forecast
area throughout the night.

Friday:
With dryline still to the west, moisture will remain in place.
What is less certain is amount of instability left after overnight
convection. With wave moving through, could see another round of
severe storms over a good portion of the area. Warm front is
forecast somewhere between OK and Nebraska borders. Heavy rain and
flooding is the most probable and increasing threat, but severe
storms could be in play as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Saturday-Tuesday:

Front should exit Southeast KS during the day on Saturday. Drier
weather is expected until Sunday night when combo of shortwave in
northwest flow and return moisture could trigger elevated
convection Sunday night. Chances for storms increase on Monday and
into Tuesday as front approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

VFR/MVFR ceilings likely overnight both with and in advance of
storms. These should rapidly move east through daybreak. Very
gusty winds anticipated later this morning and afternoon given
deep mixing and strong winds aloft. winds will rapidly decrease
around sunset. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  56  82  62 /   0   0  30  80
Hutchinson      81  55  80  59 /   0   0  30  80
Newton          81  55  80  59 /  10   0  30  80
ElDorado        81  55  81  62 /  10   0  20  80
Winfield-KWLD   82  56  84  65 /  10   0  20  80
Russell         76  52  74  53 /  20   0  20  80
Great Bend      78  52  76  54 /  10   0  20  80
Salina          79  53  78  57 /  10   0  20  80
McPherson       80  54  79  58 /  10   0  30  80
Coffeyville     84  61  85  67 /  40  10  20  60
Chanute         83  59  83  65 /  40  10  20  80
Iola            82  58  83  63 /  40  10  20  80
Parsons-KPPF    83  60  84  66 /  40  10  20  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...PJH



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