Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 042346
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
546 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS AFTERNOON...WEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH ARE COMBINING WITH
SUN-DRENCHED SKIES TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY TEMPERATURES IN BARTON & RUSSELL COUNTIES
ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY...AS THE WEST WINDS ARE COMING IN OFF THE
MASSIVE SNOW FIELD...ESPECIALLY IN RUSSELL COUNTY WHERE THE 1 PM
TEMPERATURES HAD ONLY REACHED THE UPPER 20S. BARTON COUNTY HAS
REACHED THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

TONIGHT-FRI NIGHT:
THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG UPPER-DECK LONGWAVE THAT SURGED SE FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS KS...OK AND TX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HAS NOW BEGUN TO SURGE DUE E TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS
THIS VERY INTENSE LONGWAVE SURGES E ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT
THE NEXT IN AN ASSEMBLY LINE OF UPPER-DECK WAVES THAT IS CROSSING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT VENTURES
SE. THIS INTENSE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REACH THE NM/TX PANHANDLE BORDER
EARLY FRI MORNING WHERE/WHEN IT`LL STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER ON FRI.
FRI NIGHT...THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN EXTREMELY INTENSE
UPPER CYCLONE THAT`LL MOVE SE ALONG THE SWRN SHORES OF HUDSON BAY.
THE INTENSE UPPER-DECK WAVE WILL CROSS TX LATE FRI NIGHT...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE MOISTURE MIGRATING N/NE TOWARD THEN
ACROSS SE KS IS MEAGER BUT WITH IMPRESSIVE LIFT...THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE FOR SOUTHEAST KS
FRI NIGHT.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR AS THE INTENSE UPPER-DECK
WAVE SURGES E ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SAT RIDGING WILL PUNCH
N/NE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE NEXT INTENSE SHORTWAVE SPRINTING
SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT & SAT NIGHT INDUCING SFC TROFFING
OVER THE WRN PLAINS...EXCELLENT DOWNSLOPE WOULD RESULT TO PRODUCE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AS THE CONTINUALLY-STRENGTHENING UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE MS VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT (WHERE & WHEN IT`LL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS) ALL OF
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF CONUS WILL BE UNDER A VERY STRONG N/NW REGIME
THRU TUE NIGHT. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES E ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MON &
TUE...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE INJECTED FROM THE SASKATCHEWAN/ONTARIO
BORDER THROUGH THE UPPER & MID MS VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN E-W
ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES SITUATED OVER EASTERN KS WHERE BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE
SHARP INVERTED RIDGE KNIFING IN FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AT ONSET OF FORECAST WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS.
MID CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN FROM NORTHWEST TOMORROW BUT DRY FORECAST
ANTICIPATED GIVEN DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    26  49  27  51 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      24  47  24  50 /   0  10  10   0
NEWTON          24  47  25  49 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        26  48  27  49 /   0  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   28  50  27  51 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         16  38  16  41 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      19  41  16  46 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          20  44  24  47 /   0  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       23  45  24  50 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     29  51  28  50 /   0   0  20   0
CHANUTE         27  49  28  50 /   0   0  20   0
IOLA            26  48  28  49 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    28  50  28  50 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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