Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 121134
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Above normal temperatures will return to Kansas today as southerly
winds increase and bring warmer air into the region. Meanwhile
current early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper
level trough over the northwestern states, which move eastward for
Friday into the weekend across the central plains. This will become
the weather maker for Kansas and bring increasing rain chances
along with it. We could see rain chances beginning as early as
Friday night for central Kansas, however the better chances for
more widespread showers and storms will arrive on Saturday
afternoon/night. The models are in decent agreement with richer
moisture streaming into the region along with increasing winds
aloft which could set the stage for strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

A cold front will race southward across Kansas on Sunday with rain
chances tapering off across southeast Kansas Sunday morning in the
wake of the upper level system. Confidence is high that dry and
quiet weather conditions will prevail for Monday-Wednesday, as rich
gulf moisture is shoved well south of the region by this weekend`s
weather system. Will take some time before the better quality
moisture streams back northward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Main aviation concern will be some wind shear overnight.

Surface high pressure will continue shifting east today as lee
troughing continues to strengthen. This will result in south winds
picking up today. Winds will decrease tonight but will increase
just off of the surface. Expecting winds around 40kts overnight
out of the sw by around 2,000ft. May see a brief period of fog at
KCNU this morning but feel the more dense fog will remain just
east of the area. Outside of the fog over se KS this morning,
confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  61  85  63 /   0   0  10  20
Hutchinson      81  60  79  59 /   0   0  10  30
Newton          78  60  81  61 /   0   0  10  30
ElDorado        78  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   80  62  85  66 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         82  57  68  54 /   0   0  10  40
Great Bend      82  58  71  55 /   0   0  10  30
Salina          81  61  74  58 /   0   0  10  50
McPherson       80  60  77  58 /   0   0  10  40
Coffeyville     79  61  86  68 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         77  61  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            77  60  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    78  61  86  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL



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