Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 251135
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
535 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Forecast highlights:
Near to above normal temperatures expected much of the next 7-10
days...rain and thunderstorm chances across mainly eastern Kansas
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening...several bouts of
elevated grassland fire danger.

Despite meager moisture, modest large-scale ascent ahead of an
approaching shortwave may support scattered sprinkles later this
afternoon and evening, mainly south of Hutchinson-Newton-Emporia.
This light activity should exit southeast Kansas by around
midnight. Highs today will climb into the 50s most areas.

Stout/gusty south winds and warmer temperatures mostly in the 60s
are expected for Monday and Tuesday, as a deepening western CONUS
trough strengthens low pressure across the High Plains. Chances
for drizzle and showers with embedded thunderstorms will increase
across eastern Kansas Tuesday, as lift associated with a subtle
lead wave overspreads the region. Patchy drizzle may be off-and-on
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with more substantial lift
arriving Wednesday afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas
ahead of the approaching upper trough, supporting increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances across mainly eastern Kansas Wednesday
afternoon-evening. Depending on the timing and placement of
various synoptic features along with degree of destabilization,
could be looking at a few strong to marginally severe storms
across southeast Kansas Wednesday afternoon-evening. Deep layer
shear and orientation of mid-upper jet appear favorable, although
degree of destabilization is in question. A cool down into the
40s-50s is expected from north to south Wednesday in wake of a
cold front, with 50s areawide Thursday. Stout/gusty northwest
winds are expected late Wednesday through Thursday in wake of the
cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Per medium range consensus, another upper trough digs across the
western CONUS mid week into the weekend. This should support an
overall warming trend once again into the 50s and 60s Friday
through the weekend. Stout/gusty south winds are expected Friday-
Saturday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists on the exact timing
and evolution of the western CONUS trough ejecting east across
Mid-America, although model consensus supports a possible increase
in rain chances Saturday night through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected across the plains today.  Do expect
increasing mid level clouds for the afternoon and evening hours, as
a mid level impulse moves across the area. Could see a few sprinkles
across most of south central KS this evening, but dry low layers
will keep the most of the showers from reaching the ground.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Mostly above normal temperatures in concert with several bouts of
stout/gusty winds will support off-and-on periods of very high
grassland fire danger the next 7 days. Of most immediate concern
is Monday, where portions of central Kansas could be flirting with
low-end extreme grassland fire danger (i.e. low-end red flag
conditions)...mainly west of Salina to Hutchinson. Do not think
this warrants a fire weather watch just yet, but today`s day shift
forecaster will need to monitor wind and relative humidity trends
for Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  26  62  41 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      54  23  61  39 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          53  26  61  40 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        53  27  60  40 /  10  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   56  27  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         52  22  61  37 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      52  22  61  38 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          53  23  61  40 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       53  23  61  39 /  10  10   0   0
Coffeyville     56  28  63  40 /  10  10   0   0
Chanute         54  27  62  39 /  10  10   0   0
Iola            53  28  61  39 /  10  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    55  28  63  39 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.