Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 121720
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1120 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Today:
A mid-upper deck longwave trough, deeper than the Marianas Trench,
is situated from the Great Lakes all the way to about Mississippi,
while an ultra-high amplitude upper-deck ridge covers western
North America from Baja CA all the way to the British Columbia/
Alberta border. Both continue to keep the Great Plains under a
STRONG due north mid-upper regime. Such a pattern will force a
fairly strong surface high centered over the Nebraska Panhandle
straight south today with the high centered over West Texas this
evening. The track of the surface high will induce NW winds to
back toward the west as today progresses. With colder air
filtering in from Western KS, it still won`t be nearly as warm as
yesterday, especially in Southeast KS.

Tonight & Wed:
The next sharp but compact mid-upper shortwave will sprint S/SE
from Saskatchewan & should reach the Mid Mississippi Valley Wed
evening. The shortwave will kick a surface trough rapidly SE
across the CWA Wed morning. Airmass in wake of trough passage
becomes dry adiabatic early Wed afternoon & with excellent
momentum transfer windy & warmer weather results for all areas.
While the grassland fire danger would increase, the indices are
not high enough to warrant a Fire Weather Watch for Central or
South-Central KS Wed afternoon.

Wed Night-Thu Night:
The next clipper will sail quickly S/SE from Saskatchewan &
Manitoba late Wed Night & strengthen considerably as it crosses
the immediate KS Neighborhood Thu & Thu Night. Greatest moisture
flux targets areas just NE of our CWA & as such kept dry forecast
intact.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 2 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

The strong upper-deck ridge that has covered western North America
will deamplify rapidly as it gets forced east across the Great
Plains by the next shortwave Fri & Fri Night. The positively-
tilted upper wave crossing the western U.S. will deepen rapidly as
it crosses the Northern Plains Sat & Sat Night. The strengthening
wave should extend from southern Hudson Bay to around New Mexico
on Sun. The mid-upper wave will kick a weak cold front SE across
KS Sat Night. Since the front is fairly weak, temperatures won`t
cool that much from Sat to Sun with Sun`s highs in the lower 50s.
Mon will be warmer as lower-deck flow backs toward the west which
would enable highs to reach back into the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. A surface trough
will move across the northern plains overnight, which will shift the
winds around to the west then northwest by Wed morning.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  32  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      53  31  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          51  31  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        50  31  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   51  31  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         56  31  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      56  31  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          53  31  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       52  29  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     48  30  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         46  30  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            46  30  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    47  30  61  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...Ketcham


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