Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 192010
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Main forecast concerns focus around strong south winds Friday,
and severe thunderstorm chances Saturday.

Could see hit-or-miss sprinkles and/or light showers late tonight
into Friday morning mainly west of I-135, as an upper impulse
currently over the Southern High Plains moves northeast across
Mid-America. Instability/moisture is lacking, so not expecting
widespread wetting rains by any means.

Otherwise, strong/gusty south winds are expected Friday, as low
pressure continues to deepen along the lee of the Rockies.
Magnitude of pressure gradient and mixing should support a wind
advisory for many areas along/west of the Kansas Turnpike,
although for now will only include central/north-central Kansas
counties and let night shift evaluate possible eastward expansion
of the advisory.

Additionally, cannot rule out a few hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening through Saturday morning,
as large-scale ascent gradually increases ahead of an approaching
deep western CONUS trough. However, widespread activity should
hold off until Saturday afternoon-night.

Greatest (and only) chance for rain/storms will arrive Saturday
afternoon through night, as a deep upper trough and associated
strong cold front approach from the west/northwest, respectively.
Models have come into fairly good agreement surrounding timing
and magnitude of large-scale synoptic features, although the NAM
is a tad faster than the GFS/ECMWF. That said, highest likelihood
of storms will be generally after 2 PM along/southeast of the
Kansas Turnpike corridor, with activity continuing over southeast
Kansas well after dark. Shear/instability combination will favor
strong/severe storms especially before 8 PM, with deep layer shear
orientation favoring cell mergers and an overall weakening trend
through the evening. However, the threat for training cells and
associated very heavy rainfall could become a problem Saturday
evening/night over far southeast Kansas, as GFS/ECMWF slow down
the upper system and front and develop favorable/intense lift
under right entrance region of upper jet.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Although some model discrepancies exist, the overall model
consensus supports an amplified upper pattern next week, with
longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the
west, and a shortwave or two embedded in the northwest flow in
between. This will support mostly dry weather across much of the
region Sunday through at least late next week, along with a
temperature roller coaster throughout the week. Warmer days mostly
in the 70s will be Sunday and Monday, with cooler 60s Tue-Fri.
With the cold frontal passages will also come wind, with
strong/gusty northwest winds Tuesday, southwest winds Wednesday,
and northwest winds again Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Main aviation concern will be wind shear overnight along with
strong south winds on Fri.

Water vapor imagery shows an upper impulse approaching the four
corners region with much more robust upper energy about to come on
shore over the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, low pressure
will strengthen over the high Plains which will crank up south
winds across the entire area. Should see some wind shear overnight
with 45kt sw winds expected by the time you get to 2,000ft. South
winds by early Fri afternoon should be sustained around 30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph, especially for areas west of I-135.
Confidence remain high that VFR conditions will remain in place
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Strong and gusty south winds will support very high grassland
fire danger across mainly central Kansas Friday for grasses at
least 80-90 percent cured. For the isolated/localized grasses
90-100 percent cured, critical/red flag conditions are possible.
Most fuels though are not that cured, so not expecting a red flag
warning. Rain/storms expected mainly southeast Kansas Saturday
afternoon- night, with widespread heavy rain possible. Elevated
fire danger looks possible once again Tuesday, due to gusty
northwest winds and low humidities in wake of another strong cold
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    57  77  66  74 /  10  10  20  60
Hutchinson      58  76  66  73 /  10  10  10  40
Newton          57  76  65  72 /  10  10  20  60
ElDorado        58  77  65  73 /  10  10  20  70
Winfield-KWLD   58  77  67  74 /  10  10  20  70
Russell         59  77  63  71 /  10  10  10  30
Great Bend      59  77  63  72 /  10  10  10  20
Salina          59  77  66  74 /  10  10  20  40
McPherson       58  77  66  73 /  10  10  20  40
Coffeyville     55  78  66  76 /   0  10  20  50
Chanute         54  76  65  74 /   0   0  20  60
Iola            54  76  64  74 /   0   0  20  70
Parsons-KPPF    55  77  65  75 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday for KSZ032-033-
047>051-067.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK


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