Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252031
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
331 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Another hot day is anticipated on Wednesday with afternoon
temperatures rising within a prefrontal southwest low level flow.
Afternoon highs are expected to range from 97-103. Dewpoints are
expected to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s driving heat indices
into the 105-108 degree range across all of the area and a heat
advisory will be issued for all of the area on Wed afternoon. The
best chance for storms will arrive by late afternoon and during the
evening hours along an approaching cold front. Given weaker deep
layer shear & lousy mid level laps rates, damaging winds appear to
be the primary threat with any strong or severe storms. Efficient
rain and localized flooding may also be possible given deep layer
warm cloud depths around 4000 meters and PWATS of 2+ inches or
between 150 and 200 percent of normal for late July.

Some lingering showers and storms will remain possible on Thursday,
especially across southern KS but a drier more stable post-frontal
regime should gradually spread south and east across the area with a
return to more seasonable temperatures. Highs on Thu afternoon are
expected to range from the upper 80s to low 90s. Dry and mild
conditions are anticipated on Fri with highs in the upper 80s for
most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A mid/upper ridge is progged to remain parked across the
Great Basin area while it`s influence will be felt across the
Central Plains states. Weak northwest mid/upper flow may steer some
subtle shortwave troughs across the area bringing low probabilities
for showers and storms but confidence in timing remains low at this
time. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Aviation concerns are expected remain minimal through the next 24
hours.

Upper ridge over the southern Plains is expected to slowly weaken
tonight into Wed as an upper impulse tracks across the
central/northern Plains Wed afternoon. This will push a cold front
into the area late Wed afternoon into Wed night. Ahead of this
front, expected VFR conditions to remain with winds veering around
to the sw and increasing for Wed.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77 103  76  89 /   0  10  40  20
Hutchinson      78 102  73  88 /  10  20  40  20
Newton          77 101  73  87 /  10  20  40  20
ElDorado        76  99  74  87 /   0  10  40  20
Winfield-KWLD   77 101  77  91 /   0   0  30  20
Russell         77 102  67  87 /  20  30  40  20
Great Bend      77 102  69  87 /  10  20  40  20
Salina          80 103  72  88 /  10  30  40  20
McPherson       77 101  72  87 /  10  20  40  20
Coffeyville     76  99  77  91 /   0   0  30  30
Chanute         77  98  76  89 /   0   0  40  30
Iola            76  97  76  88 /   0   0  40  30
Parsons-KPPF    76  98  77  90 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-051>053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...RBL



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