Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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681 FXUS64 KLCH 122344 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 644 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 554 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are still moving through our northern counties and parishes, some of which are severe. With no further activity expected in the southern counties and parishes, they have been removed from the tornado watch. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Strong/severe convection associated with advancing shortwave/sfc warm front ongoing across the forecast area at this time and expected to continue through the afternoon before gradually ending with the passage of the shortwave later. In the interim, as the storms appear to be weakening somewhat as they move ewd, not anticipating expanding the ongoing tornado watch to include the remainder of the forecast area. Thereafter, the remainder of the night should be quiet with just some patchy fog likely with copious low-level moisture in place. Monday should see another round of strong/severe storms as yet another disturbance sweeps through and interacts with our very moist airmass. Forecast soundings indicate better severe potential and thus the entire area has been highlighted in a slight risk. As of now, WPC has shifted the moderate risk of excessive rain to east of the Atchafalaya, although the entire CWA remains in a slight risk. No changes to the going flood watch have been made this afternoon. Convection will end from west-to-east Monday night into Tuesday morning as the mid-level trof/sfc frontal system push ewd across the forecast area. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Dry weather is expected to start the period on Wednesday. Moisture begins to return late Wednesday into Wednesday night as high moves off to the east. As the next disturbance moves into the region early Thursday the signals for heavy rainfall returns to the region as PW`s get above 2 inches. While much of the area is under the risk for very heavy rainfall most signals continue across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana which have been hit by multiple rounds of heavy rainfall the past month and half. Precip then moves out of the area by Friday morning. Temperatures will be slightly below seasonal norms through Thursday then trend warmer than normal the remainder of the period. 27/25 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 For 00z TAFS, starting out VFR to MVFR for southern sites as most of the storms have passed now, and IFR is expected at times as the thunderstorms pass through KAEX. By the 02 to 04z range, expect patchy fog and lower ceilings to develop due to all the rain seen today to warrant IFR forecasts through the overnight hours. MVFR to VFR returns in the morning Monday, before another round of thunderstorms is expected later in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Expanded the SCEC headlines to include Sabine/Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay...otherwise no changes to inherited headlines with this package. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 66 85 65 86 / 80 70 50 10 LCH 72 85 69 88 / 70 60 50 10 LFT 73 87 70 89 / 70 70 70 10 BPT 73 87 68 90 / 50 60 40 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ027>032. TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...15