132
FXUS64 KLIX 040233
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
933 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Overall, forecast is in decent shape, although may push an update
just to remove evening low end PoPs from northwest corner of the
CWA. Will also update hourly temperature/dew point grids to
reflect current trends, but not adjusting overnight lows at this
time.

There is at least a small threat of fog over southwest Mississippi
overnight for a few hours, but we`ve already got a mention of fog
there. Not enough confidence to justify an advisory at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

An MCS that developed near the southeast Texas/southwest
Louisiana border last night is now almost completely east of the
CWA. After peaking in intensity nearly 12 hours ago, it`s steadily
weakened and is barely discernable on radar. Even with an
embedded MCV, still seen on radar in southwest Mississippi,
there`s no appreciable winds associated with it.

The remainder of the afternoon and evening may still have
intermittent rain in the early portions of this period. KLCH radar
shows continued thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary
along the coastline. Latest trends as well as CAMs suggest that
convection will remain along the coast with just a few showers
possibly reaching western portions of SELA before all dissipating
around sunset.

For Saturday, the CWA remains in a region between ridging to the
southwest and trough to the northwest. There`s some hints on the
500mb maps that indicate a weak shortwave will pass across the area.
Not sure how much that matter with mid 80s to 90 degrees at the
surface, still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface. This
setup is pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential
for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC,
marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible.
Coverage will be limited, however, so may only see a couple to few
storms with any appreciable intensity. Sunday will be nearly a
complete repeat of Saturday with yet another shortwave passing SW to
NE across the lower MS Valley and possibly aiding in the development
of afternoon storms. Looking at same area of impact...SW MS and
adjacent LA parishes. Probably won`t see much, if any, convection
south of I-12.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat
zonal but with a slight northern expansion of the ridge centered
south of the local area. This will provide subsidence to stunt
convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance
spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in
the lower to mid 90s. No, not earth shattering warm, but that`s at
or above records for this time of year. Heat Risk will likely be
elevated for sensitive groups.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

All terminals currentlyy VFR, although a few are reporting
scattered clouds around FL020-025. Later in the night, expect MVFR
ceilings to become fairly common, but the only terminal I
currently have forecast to experience IFR or lower conditions
would be KMCB (LIFR) for a few hours around sunrise. Cumulus
redevelopment expected around 14-15z Saturday, with MVFR ceilings
possible. there`s at least some threat of convective development
across northwest sections by the afternoon hours. Will carry VCTS
at KMCB/KBTR/KHDC from about 19z Saturday until sunset. Can`t rule
out remaining terminals seeing at least isolated convection
Saturday afternoon, but probabilities too low to mention in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MCS feature mentioned in previous forecast passed right along the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. It steadily decayed throughout
the day which limited its ability to produce winds over 30kts.
Residual westerly winds from this MCS are collapsing and gradient
onshore flow will resume. Surface ridge centered east of the region
and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly
winds around 10 to 15kts throughout the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  85  64  83 /  10  30  10  40
BTR  68  89  69  87 /  10  20   0  40
ASD  68  87  69  86 /  10  20   0  20
MSY  71  87  72  86 /  10  10   0  20
GPT  69  84  69  84 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  67  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...ME