148
FXUS64 KLIX 040455
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1155 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Overall, forecast is in decent shape, although may push an update
just to remove evening low end PoPs from northwest corner of the
CWA. Will also update hourly temperature/dew point grids to
reflect current trends, but not adjusting overnight lows at this
time.

There is at least a small threat of fog over southwest Mississippi
overnight for a few hours, but we`ve already got a mention of fog
there. Not enough confidence to justify an advisory at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

An MCS that developed near the southeast Texas/southwest
Louisiana border last night is now almost completely east of the
CWA. After peaking in intensity nearly 12 hours ago, it`s steadily
weakened and is barely discernible on radar. Even with an
embedded MCV, still seen on radar in southwest Mississippi,
there`s no appreciable winds associated with it.

The remainder of the afternoon and evening may still have
intermittent rain in the early portions of this period. KLCH radar
shows continued thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary
along the coastline. Latest trends as well as CAMs suggest that
convection will remain along the coast with just a few showers
possibly reaching western portions of SELA before all dissipating
around sunset.

For Saturday, the CWA remains in a region between ridging to the
southwest and trough to the northwest. There`s some hints on the
500mb maps that indicate a weak shortwave will pass across the area.
Not sure how much that matter with mid 80s to 90 degrees at the
surface, still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface. This
setup is pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential
for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC,
marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible.
Coverage will be limited, however, so may only see a couple to few
storms with any appreciable intensity. Sunday will be nearly a
complete repeat of Saturday with yet another shortwave passing SW to
NE across the lower MS Valley and possibly aiding in the development
of afternoon storms. Looking at same area of impact...SW MS and
adjacent LA parishes. Probably won`t see much, if any, convection
south of I-12.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat
zonal but with a slight northern expansion of the ridge centered
south of the local area. This will provide subsidence to stunt
convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance
spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in
the lower to mid 90s. No, not earth shattering warm, but that`s at
or above records for this time of year. Heat Risk will likely be
elevated for sensitive groups.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Most terminals are VFR at issuance time, but KGPT and KASD have
developed BKN018 ceilings over the last hour. There is certainly
some low level moisture around after the rainfall Friday
afternoon, but the question will be whether we end up with fog or
stratus again toward sunrise, as has been the question the last
few nights.

Multiple MCS to our west from the northern Plains to the Rio
Grande River, with cirrus spreading this way, but thinning as they
approach. Dew points are about 5-8 degrees lower than they were
24 hours ago, but so are temperatures. For now, the expectation is
that stratus near FL010 will be the main occurrence at most
terminals, with the exceptions being KMCB and KHUM where TEMPO
LIFR conditions will be carried around sunrise.

Expect MVFR ceilings at most or all terminals at mid morning
Saturday as cumulus field develops, but could see improvement to
VFR at midday. Threat of SHRA/TSRA appears to be lower on
Saturday, but some models carrying a weak shortwave that could
trigger scattered cells, with the "most" favored terminal KMCB.
That`s the only one we`ll carry a mention for now. Anything that
does develop should dissipate toward sunset, with the same cycle
anticipated overnight tomorrow night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MCS feature mentioned in previous forecast passed right along the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. It steadily decayed throughout
the day which limited its ability to produce winds over 30kts.
Residual westerly winds from this MCS are collapsing and gradient
onshore flow will resume. Surface ridge centered east of the region
and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly
winds around 10 to 15kts throughout the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  85  64  83 /  20  30  10  40
BTR  68  89  69  87 /  20  20   0  40
ASD  68  87  69  86 /  10  20   0  20
MSY  71  87  72  86 /  10  10   0  20
GPT  69  84  69  84 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  67  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...ME