837
FXUS64 KLUB 071906
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
206 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Southwesterly winds around 20-25 knots will continue across the
region, mainly on the Caprock, through the late afternoon as a
surface pushes southeastward into the northern Texas
Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. A weak cold front will follow behind
the surface low and will push into our northern zones shortly before
sunrise tomorrow morning. The front will have little affect on
temperatures tomorrow afternoon as highs are still expected in the
80s area wide. Winds will drop to less than 15 mph tomorrow
afternoon as surface high pressure moves into the FA. Winds will,
however, quickly veer to the west to southwest tomorrow as a surface
low begins to develop in central New Mexico ahead of an upper
shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Broad mid to upper level troughing over the CONUS in the medium term
will push temperatures cooler, likely toward a range of 3-5 degrees
in daytime highs and near normal for lows in the Thursday to Sunday
period. An initial cold front will move through the forecast area
Wednesday night with low level cold advection persisting into Friday
as the trough splits with western CONUS energy cutting off and
developing a closed low over the Great Basin southward to the desert
Southwest and a more progressive pattern in the eastern half of the
split favoring cool air continuing spill southward as an upper level
short wave trough rotates from the Plains to the Ohio Valley. This
cooler, more stable air mass will keep the forecast precip-free
through Friday. Short wave ridging overhead on Saturday will be
downstream from the western closed low which is progged to being
shifting eastward Friday night probably in turn helping to spark
diurnal convection on the High Plains of eastern New Mexico where an
axis of low level moisture is likely to develop in response to
veered surface flow and resultant moisture advection. Models are in
pretty good agreement with mid level support on the southeastern
flank of the upper low favoring scattered thunderstorms moving into
the forecast area Saturday evening and PoPs have increased
accordingly. Models begin to diverge at this point with the
mid/upper pattern back to the west with one camp favoring
significant energy lingering over the Four Corners region and
keeping a trough to our west/northwest while the other camp a more
progressive evolution with ridging building in behind the departing
wave. Either camp will favor some showers/thunderstorms in the
forecast area Sunday as a short wave trough of some strength moves
across the forecast area. This leaves a decent amount of uncertainty
for Monday and Tuesday, although a modest warming trend should be
favored and the potential for some unsettled conditions in mid May
supports a prudent path of maintaining some thunderstorm mention in
line with the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...51