Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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517 FXUS64 KMEG 291155 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 655 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A wet and unsettled pattern will continue today with rain chances increasing this afternoon. Daily bouts of rainfall will resume on Wednesday with chances for widespread shower and thunderstorm development Friday. Somewhat cooler and drier conditions are expected this upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Remnant showers from the QLCS that pushed through southern Arkansas on Sunday are struggling to overcome the stable environment across the Mid-South. As a result, showers continue to diminish over northwest Mississippi. A few showers may continue through mid-morning, but overall coverage will be sparse. There exists potential for showers and storms to redevelop this afternoon as a large upper low pushes into the Great Lakes Region, ejecting a cold front into central Arkansas. Storm development may further be aided by a shortwave that is progged to develop within the trough axis by 18Z. Given overcast skies and highs in the low to mid 70s today, only marginal instability will be in place this afternoon. Therefore, any storm that does form should remain subsevere. A few strong storms may be possible if more instability is realized, but overall the threat is low. Behind today`s system, an upper level ridging pattern will emerge with high pressure centered over southeast CONUS. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to depict embedded shortwaves rotating around the periphery of the ridge by Wednesday. As a result, daily rounds of precipitation will be possible through the end of the week. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as a negatively tilted trough pushes into the Great Lakes Region, bringing a cold front towards the Mid-South. Thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of this boundary, but the severe weather threat at this time appears low given lack luster wind shear. Unfortunately, it appears at this time that the aforementioned front will washout over the Mid-South on Saturday. Therefore, expect rain chances to persist into the weekend with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Primary forecast concern today will be timing and coverage of TSRA. Latest CAMs appear overdone with respect to instability and surface winds at 12Z TAF onset. SPC mesoanalysis showed nil to minimal instability in the convective outflow from overnight SHRA to the west. This SHRA will spread into MEM shortly and will likely delay convective destabilization until midafternoon. Sufficient destabilization for TSRA appears more likely by late afternoon, given the approach of a distinct shortwave trough. TCF concurs, with sparse coverage depicted. Late evening/early overnight IFR/MVFR CIGs appear a good behind the departing shortwave trough. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB