337
FXUS64 KMEG 030439
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1139 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A shortwave trough propagating through weak southwest flow is
shifting east of the Mississippi River. Additionally, we are
rapidly losing any instability from daytime heating. These two
factors should limit any additional thunder/lightning across the
Midsouth. Updated to remove thunderstorms and adjust short term
temperatures. It will remain showery and muggy through the night
with lows in the middle 60s. Tomorrow through the weekend and into
next looks to remain unsettled featuring several additional
shortwave troughs tracking through southwest flow. Severe
thunderstorms do not look likely. Temperatures should trend
slightly warmer over the weekend into next week with highs back in
the middle 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Wet and unsettled weather will persist across the Mid-South
over the next week or so as a series of upper level disturbances
and fronts will move the region. Above normal temperatures and
precipitation is expected through the late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals scattered showers and
thunderstorms tracking nearly due north along and west of I-55.
Most convective activity has been on the weaker side as shear has
generally been less than 25 knots. A few strong storms are still
possible this afternoon as up to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE is available
along and west of the Mississippi River. The main threats with any
strong storms will be small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall.

Convective activity will become more widespread over the next
several hours, as a shortwave over Arkansas translates northeast
through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The majority of
activity will occur overnight and taper off by Friday morning.
Upper level heights are expected to build north of I-40 tomorrow
in wake of the departing wave. This should limit convective
coverage to the north. A weak cold front will move into the Mid-
South tomorrow afternoon and likely act as a trigger for renewed
convection. HREF guidance suggests most activity will be confined
to areas along and south of I-40 corridor in the mid to late
afternoon hours tomorrow.

Storm coverage and timing will be difficult to pin down
over the weekend as we remain in weak southwest flow aloft.
Several weak shortwaves and frontal boundaries will be in play
each day and hi-res guidance may be the only option to get a good
handle on mesoscale triggers. Opted to stick with the NBM through
this period, with 20 to 40 PoPs during the overnight periods and
40 to 80 PoPs during peak heating each day.

Unsettled weather will continue through the long term forecast as
several shortwaves traverse the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley. No clearly organized severe weather threat is
forecast over the next 7 days. Both temperatures and rainfall
will remain above normal through late next week.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

SHRA is expected to continue across portions of the Mid-South
through the early morning hours. The latest guidance has
indicated that the transition to MVFR and IFR CIGS may occur later
than anticipated. Another round of precipitation will begin to
affect various TAF sites in the late morning to early afternoon
hours, with TSRA being possible. Several model runs depict the
potential for lower CIGS occurring toward the end of the TAF
period, but confidence in this scenario was not high enough to
include in this TAF cycle.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JPR