743
FXUS62 KMFL 021734
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
134 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure and ridging in the low to mid levels continues to
dominate the weather pattern across South Florida, keeping a typical
easterly regime in place. Convective activity will be very
limited today and Friday as drier air starts to filter in. Anything
that does manage to develop along sea breeze collisions will be
heavily focused over interior and Southwest Florida areas.

Outside of a rouge shower or thunderstorm, prevailing conditions
will be quite nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower
to mid 80s. Across interior and southwest portions of the area,
afternoon highs will be a bit warmer in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Not much change is expected through the long term period as stout
mid-level ridging will maintain the easterly regime across South
Florida into next week. This easterly surface flow will allow the
eastern breeze to dominate any potential for convective initiation,
with east coast metro areas seeing a slight chance for a shower
or storm during the early afternoon and and mid to late afternoon
for interior and southwest portions of the area. Overall rain
chances remain low through the period (less than 20 percent)
as drier air and the absence of synoptic forcing should limit
widespread convection. For the few showers and storms that are
able to develop, the most likely area to see them will be across
the Everglades and Southwest Florida thanks to the breezy easterly
surface flow.

Temperatures will be near to just above normal through the extended
period. The highs will rise into the upper 80s across SW FL and interior,
while remaining in the low to mid 80s along the Atlantic Coast. The
overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for low to mid 70s across
the east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Generally VFR through the TAF period, though a few showers are
possible at east coast terminals through early afternoon, and
from late afternoon into the evening at APF. Easterly winds will
be around 10-12kts through the period, except for lighter winds
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Mostly benign conditions will continue through the end of the week
and into the weekend. There will be chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms each day, which could create locally hazardous
conditions. Other than the convective threat, there is not
expected to be concerns for marine conditions. Seas will generally
remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less
in the Gulf waters. Winds will be around 10-15 kts out of the
east.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to an elevated risk for rip currents
across all Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the week and into
the upcoming weekend. Highest rip current risk today will be maximized
across the Palm Beach County beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  84  73  84 /  10  20  20  10
West Kendall     70  85  70  85 /  10  10  10  10
Opa-Locka        72  86  72  86 /  10  20  10  10
Homestead        72  84  73  84 /  10  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  73  83  73  83 /  10  20  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  73  83  73  83 /  10  20  20  10
Pembroke Pines   73  87  73  86 /  10  20  20  10
West Palm Beach  70  84  71  84 /  10  10  10  10
Boca Raton       72  84  72  85 /  20  20  20  10
Naples           70  89  70  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Culver