314
FXUS62 KMHX 031948
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
348 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will linger over the area Saturday
before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing
across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will
lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier
conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing
heat and humidity as ridging builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Sea breeze is marching inland, moderating
temps behind it. Highs have already been reached for the coast,
and inland temps currently in the mid to upper 80s will
increase by a few degrees before coming back down. Back door
cold front is making its way through NE portions of the CWA,
winds shifting to become easterly behind it. Isallobaric winds
are trailing behind this cold front. Models seem to be
underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front,
with gusts of 20-20kts observed to our north. Strengthening of
the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south will
likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting.
With some increased moisture convergence west of the Pamlico
river as the sea breeze pushes inland and encounters the back
door cold front, we could see isolated sprinkles in the area of
convergence this evening. The backdoor front stalls out over the
CWA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the
weekend. Another round of fog and stratus possible overnight
with winds expected to become light and var and ample moisture
in the low levels. Fog will start to build east of hwy 17 as
moisture advects from the east, and will spread westward
through the night. Most dense, locally impactful fog is expected
along and east of hwy 17. Stratus will will move in from the NE
behind the back door cold front overnight. Muggy lows in the
low to mid 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Saturday will start off cloudy, low cloud
cover slowly rising with the help of daytime heating. Weak cold
front will remain over ENC with east/southeasterly flow
expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit
instability development, and with drier air holding on across
the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry
day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated
shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will
remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs
ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast
with the onshore flow).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the
Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the
first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East
Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week
drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an
increase in heat and humidity.

Sunday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front
retreats to the north. However this will bring better
moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most
widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected
with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore
early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern
Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally
enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best
chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper
70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level
thicknesses boosting Tuesday`s highs into the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week
as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However,
increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow
will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs
reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s
closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and
thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 330 PM Friday...VFR through the rest of the day with
light winds, predominantly onshore this afternoon behind the
seabreeze in the S and Eerly for Nern zones behind a dry
backdoor cold front sinking S. FEW-SCT diurnal CU field around
FL060 this afternoon ahead of the seabreeze and front. Another
round of subVFR flight cats is expected tonight with potential
for a fog/stratus event due to moist low levels, light and
variable to calm winds, and the front which will stall over the
area tonight. Current expectation is for fog to initiate along
the coast, where moisture is the most impressive, and progress
inland through the night. IFR visibilities are possible after
6Z for EWN and OAJ where fog will have the most residence time.
We are also expecting low stratus to spread through much of the
region tonight, teetering between MVFR and IFR levels. The most
aggressive guidance suggests ceilings of 300ft, but have limited
ceilings to 700ft for EWN and OAJ, with PGV and OAJ a bit
higher at 900-1000ft. Fog will dissipate by 13Z, but sub-VFR
ceilings will linger into the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through early next week, however increasingly unsettled
conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each
afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 340 PM Friday...MWS has been issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke
sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from
Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from
westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind a back door
cold front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts
between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow
results in funneling. As we get into tonight gusts will lessen
to 10-15kts behind the front. Winds will remain
east/southeasterly tomorrow, sustained 10 kts gusting to 15
kts. Seas are calm today, starting to build from the north
overnight into Saturday. By Saturday evening, waves will be
2-4ft for coastal waters, highest north and east of Hatteras.

Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds,
and rivers once again.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this
weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next
week.

Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW
winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds
increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through
Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ