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000
FXUS62 KMLB 232008
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
408 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Tonight/Wed...High pressure slipping off the Carolina coast this
aftn will continue eastward over the Atlc with a trailing ridge
axis extending westward across north FL. Winds will become East
and decrease a bit compared to today as pressure gradient relaxes.
There should also be more sun as marine stratocu will not be as
prevalent though still present. Cool overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s interior and lower 60s coast. A little warmer Wed with
max temps in the upper 70s coast and mid 80s interior with low
humidity.

Thursday-Friday...A surface ridge axis in place across the Florida
peninsula becomes stretched across the western Atlantic as a surface
boundary sinks towards north Florida. Dry conditions prevail through
the end of the work week under mostly sunny skies. An east coast sea
breeze is forecast to develop each afternoon, keeping coastal
temperatures near seasonal values in the low 80s. Warmer west of I-
95, climbing into the mid to upper 80s.

Saturday-Monday...Reinforcing high pressure builds across the
western Atlantic. Locally, onshore flow will increase to 10-15 mph
each afternoon. Moisture increases into Saturday with skies
becoming partly cloudy. Soundings suggest enough moisture in the
low levels to support onshore moving cumulus and perhaps a shallow
shower along the coast this weekend. NBM PoPs remain dry, but
have continued a mention of silent PoPs (~10-14%) over the waters
and along the coast Saturday afternoon. Breezy onshore flow should
keep coastal counties in the low 80s while interior counties
remain in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR through the TAF period. Gusty E/NE winds will diminish with
sunset and become East 5 knots interior and 5-10 knots coast. On
Wed, East winds 5-10 knots interior and 10-14 knots coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Tonight/Wed...Gradually improving conds as Atlc high pressure
ridge axis settles south across north FL. Winds will become E to
SE 5-10 knots tonight, becoming enhanced by the sea breeze near
the coast Wed aftn at 10-14 knots. Seas will fall below 7 feet in
the Gulf Stream this evening so what is left of the SCA will be
allowed to expire. On Wed, seas 4 to 5 feet mainly in a NE swell.

Friday-Sunday...High pressure holds influence over
the local Atlantic waters into the weekend. Onshore flow becomes
breezy Friday night increasing to around 15-20 kts. Seas of 2-3 ft
on Friday steadily increase this weekend, becoming 5-6 ft
Saturday night. While mostly dry conditions are forecast to
persist, a light shower could be possible on Saturday (~10%).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Much drier airmass across the area through mid to late week will
continue sensitive fire weather conditions across the area.
Critically low RH values are forecast each afternoon, mainly over
the interior, as easterly onshore flow will keep RH values
elevated along the coast. Min RH values will drop as low as the
upper 20s to mid 30s Wednesday and Thursday, and mid to upper 30s
Friday. Wind speeds across the interior, where critically low RH
values are expected, look to remain below 15 mph Wednesday and
Thursday, but may approach around 15 mph on Friday afternoon as
onshore flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  79  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  58  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  61  79  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  59  80  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  57  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  57  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  59  83  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  58  79  60  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-572-
     575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM...Law