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000
FXUS64 KMOB 232331
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
631 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the period with mainly FEW to
SCT cumulus clouds expected. Southeast to south between 5 to 10
knots become mostly light and variable overnight and then
southeast to south 5 to 10 knots again Wednesday afternoon. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the region tonight
and Wednesday as a weak shortwave trough aloft moves east across
the region. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
southeastern CONUS early this evening will shift to just off the
southeast East Coast by late Wednesday, but continue to ridge back
west across our area. Associated low level light onshore return
flow will gradually begin to increase moisture across the area,
with PWATS just over 0.50 inches this evening climbing to just
over 1.00 inch by the end of the day Wednesday. Overall though,
the the deep layer air column remains fairly dry through
Wednesday, with a possible saturated layer between 850-700MB. With
this will likely be looking at increased mid-level clouds across
the region on Wednesday, and possibly a sprinkle or two up along
the Highway 84 corridor. The likelihood of any rain for now though
it too low to carry any PoPs for Wednesday. There could be some
very patchy light fog development in a few spots late
tonight/early Wednesday morning, but confidence in occurrence and
the anticipated very patchy/limited nature of fog development
precluded any mention in the forecast. A little warmer tonight
with min temps primarily in the low 50s over all interior
locations north of I-10, but upper 50s to lower 60s closer to and
along the coast. Highs on Wednesday rebounding mainly into the
lower 80s for most locations, but remaining in the upper 70s for
some locations, especially along the coast. DS/12

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Northwest flow aloft remains across the forecast area Wednesday
night through Thursday night before upper level ridging pushes
across the area. This will transition us to a more westerly and
eventually southwest flow aloft as we head into the weekend and
early next week. The forecast area remains predominately dry as
any appreciable shortwaves pass well to the north of the gulf
coast through the weekend. A sharper, deeper trough may try to
impinge on the area Monday into Tuesday which may result in
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week.
Temperatures remain seasonable in the lower to middle 80`s for
highs each afternoon and lows in the lower to middle 60`s each
morning.

Beach Note: Rip current risk increases to MODERATE on Friday with
a HIGH RISK expected by Saturday as onshore flow continues to
increase at the beaches. RCMOS probabilities indicate a high
likelihood of the risk remaining HIGH through at least Sunday at
all local beaches. MM/25 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

No marine impacts anticipated through the week. Onshore flow is
forecast to strengthen with a gradual build in seas late Friday
and into the weekend. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      55  82  59  84  61  82  66  82 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   60  78  61  81  64  79  68  79 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      62  77  64  79  66  78  68  79 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   50  82  56  84  58  84  60  84 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  50  82  56  85  59  85  63  85 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0   0
Camden      50  79  57  82  58  84  61  84 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0   0
Crestview   50  83  56  86  57  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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