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000
FXUS63 KMPX 150934
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN
434 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of dry and breezy conditions in western and southern
Minnesota.

- Widespread rain is expected early Tuesday into Wednesday. Most
locations should see around an inch of rain along with a few rumbles
of thunder.

- Below-normal temperatures late this week through next weekend
  with highs in the 40s and 50s expected. Sub-freezing lows are
  likely Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Today will be similar to yesterday with breezy and mostly dry
conditions. The worst of the conditions, with relation to fire
weather concerns, reside in far southwestern Minnesota where a Red
Flag Warning is in effect 11AM-7PM. Highs will be seasonably warm,
with low 70s across the south. Rain chances and cloud cover will
limit heating in central Minnesota and western Wisconsin, where
highs will likely remain in the 60s. Scattered rain showers on radar
this morning are just starting to reach the ground, moving in an
hour or two sooner than anticipated. These showers can be attributed
to the co-location (at the 700mb level) of warm air advection and
frontogenesis. This will slowly weaken and shift northeast
throughout the day, with the continuation of intermittent light rain
showers for areas along and north of the I-94 corridor. It will dry
out for a few hours before midnight ahead of the bigger system on
track to arrive early Tuesday morning.

A large system associated with a low pressure center in Iowa will
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to Minnesota and
Wisconsin. Rain will move in from the southwest during the overnight
hours Monday into Tuesday. By Tuesday mid-morning, the precipitation
shield will cover all of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin as
the low progresses east. Easterly winds will get quite gusty as the
low nears, with widespread gusts to 30MPH possible Tuesday
afternoon. This coverage will continue through early Wednesday, with
locally heavier amounts in areas that see thunderstorms. The system
will exit the region to the east on Wednesday as the low moves
towards southern Wisconsin. Things will clear eastern Minnesota by
mid-afternoon Wednesday and clear western Wisconsin by the evening.
Looking at QPF, the NBM continues to narrow down totals, with a
slight downward trend the farther north in Minnesota you are. Most
areas should see at least an inch of rain, with some seeing just
under two.

Regarding the severe threat, it remains relatively low for Minnesota
and Wisconsin. There will be storms just to the south that could
stray north, but the environment north of the Iowa border remains
marginal. CAPE is the limiting factor, with only a few hundred J/kg
of most unstable CAPE reaching far southern Minnesota both early
Tuesday and again late Tuesday. Of these two time periods, late
Tuesday brings the better chance for stronger storms. Looking beyond
the limiting CAPE, deep layer shear is very good with 40-50kts
across southern Minnesota. That being said, it will likely not be
enough to overcome the lack of instability. Taking all of this into
account, a few storms could produce hail and some stronger gusts.

Looking beyond this period`s weather-maker, things will drop off
temperature wise as easterly winds become northwesterly and bring in
cooler air. This cold air advection could lead to some snowflakes
mixing with rain. High temperatures Thursday through the weekend
remain in the mid to low 50s, with overnight lows dipping into the
mid to low 30s. Friday and Saturday nights are currently forecast to
be the coldest, with a few 20s possible in rural areas in western
and central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Increasing mid level clouds will occur overnight with light
winds. A few light showers may graze AXN and STC Monday
morning. Easterly winds will increase with some gusts across
western and southern MN by Monday afternoon.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -RA likely Chc TS. Wind SE 20-25G30-35 kts.
WED...MVFR/IFR. -RA likely Chc TS. Wind N bcmg NE 15-20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for Brown-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...Borghoff