456
FXUS63 KMQT 080011
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
811 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain showers this afternoon and tonight to bring half an inch to an
inch of rainfall to the area. Thunder chances are low, but are most
likely (15-30%) along the MI/WI state line.
- Multiple passing low pressure systems will keep rain chances in
the forecast into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase imagery shows high cirrus over the eastern
UP and east half of Lake Superior while a cumulus deck moves over
the remainder of the region along with weakly convective shower
activity along the MI/WI state line. RAP analysis shows a 984
mb low pressure over the ND/SD state line that is vertically
stacked and not moving much over the past 3 hours. Rotating
around the upper low are shortwaves that are supporting a now-
occluded front which is pushing into the UP and causing the
shower activity. CAMs show this shower activity overspreading
the UP throughout the afternoon and evening. The QPF forecast
has gone up a bit with the most recent run of the HREF, with the
central UP now seeing slightly over 50% probabilities of an
inch of rainfall compared to around 2/3 of an inch at the same
probability the last couple of runs. Mean MUCAPE values are
still meager, peaking at only around 100 J/kg along the MI/WI
state line so the ~15% chance of thunderstorms remains the
prevailing forecast along with no severe weather expected. RHs
fell into the 20s and 30s ahead of the occluded front in the
central and eastern UP this afternoon along with wind gusts
around 25 mph, but with cirrus overrunning the region preventing
RHs from falling further, expected reductions in wind with
time, and the arrival of showers within the next 6 hours, fire
weather concerns are low.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over South Dakota
12z Wed which moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu. A shortwave
over northern Saskatchewan 12z Thu dives southeast into the upper
Great Lakes late Fri. Get a glancing blow from a shortwave to the
south on Thu, otherwise pcpn ends by Wed afternoon.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough and closed
low in the desert sw, a deep trough in the ern U.S. 12z Sat. The
trough in the ern U.S. moves to the east 12z Sun with more shortwave
energy poised to come into the area with a shortwave over Manitoba.
This shortwave dives into the upper Great Lakes 12z Mon and into the
lower Great Lakes 12z Tue. Temperatures look to be warming to above
normal this forecast period with an active pattern of alberta
clipper type systems moving through. One on Saturday, one Sunday.
Looks unsettled for this forecast period with some fronts nearby,
but no real strong systems to bring widespread rain at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

After the initial band of showers moved through the terminals
late this afternoon there will be a break in shower activity
for at least the next couple hours with VFR conditions. Showers
will move back in later this evening with a disturbance lifting
north through Lower Mi. SAW will have the best chance to see
steady rain from these showers later this evening into the
overnight hours. Expect conditions to lower to MVFR and then IFR
overnight at SAW and IWD in showers as an upslope n-ne flow
develops on the backside of the associated sfc low moving
toward the Straits later tonight. CMX also has a good chance to
see a period showers and MVFR cigs with this second of wave of
precip late evening into the early overnight, but then expect
CMX to improve to VFR late tonight (08Z or after) and continuing
into Wednesday as a downslope ne flow develops there. Conditions
will be slower improve at IWD and SAW during the day on
Wednesday under the n-ne wind flow with improvement to MVFR by
late morning and then to VFR mid to late afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Easterly winds diminish to below 20 knots tonight before becoming
northeast and increasing to 30 knots on Wed into Wed night. North to
northeast winds drop below 20 knots on Thu and stay that way into
Sun.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     LSZ244>246.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...07