Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
741
FNUS73 KMQT 052050
FWSMQT
Spot Forecast for Little Falls...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
450 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 CDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue to dominate across the region on Monday.
Given warm temperatures and light southerly winds expected on Monday
a lake breeze is expected to form off Lake Superior and there is some
uncertainty on the inland extent of this lake breeze in the afternoon.
At this time, expect the lake breeze to get held up just north of the
burn area allowing for light southerly winds to prevail, but if this
lake breeze boundary reaches a few more miles inland it could result
in variable winds or winds switching from light southerly to light
northerly in the afternoon. Mixing to 5 kft will allow for good
smoke dispersion and could allow for drier dew points and lower
RHs in the afternoon as well. Expect min RHs around 25% over the burn
area. Southeast winds will be increasing Monday night into Tuesday in
advance of a low pressure approaching from the Plains. Showers from
this system are expected to reach the burn area mainly in the afternoon
on Tuesday.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Patchy fog early in the
morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 25 percent.
Dewpoint............33 decreasing to 31 late in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
late morning and afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south up to 6 mph in the
late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-300 ft AGL increasing to 5700-6200 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (0.0-498.0) increasing to good
(517.0) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......25 decreasing to 20 late in the morning, then
decreasing to 16 late in the morning decreasing
to 11 late in the morning decreasing to 8.9
decreasing to 7.0 early in the afternoon
decreasing to 5.0 increasing to 6.1 late in the
afternoon increasing to 7.1 increasing to 8.2
late in the afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........3 3 3 8 12 17 22 26 31 31 30 30
Weather cov.....PTY
Weather type....FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............38 39 41 47 55 61 65 66 67 68 69 70
Dewpoint........34 35 35 34 33 31 31 31 30 31 32 32
RH..............85 84 80 59 43 32 28 26 25 25 25 25
33 ft wind dir..S S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE
33 ft wind spd..2 2 2 5 5 5 7 7 7 8 8 8
20 ft wind dir..S S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 ft wind spd..2 2 2 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6
Wind gust....... 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.3 2.0 4.1 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7
Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VIndx kt-ft/100.0 0 1 8 25 41 50 49 46 46 52 52
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 20 16 11 8.9 7.0 5.0 6.1 7.1 8.2
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 81 percent.
Dewpoint............35 increasing to 40 early in the evening.
33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 7 to 13 mph.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5100-5800 ft AGL decreasing to 0-300 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Fair to excellent (222.0-681.0) decreasing to
poor (0.0) late in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......7.2 decreasing to 5.1.
TIME (CDT) 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM
Sky (%).........22 7 7 7 12 22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............70 66 56 48 47 45
Dewpoint........34 42 42 41 40 39
RH..............27 41 60 77 78 78
33 ft wind......SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 SE 10 SE 10 SE 13
20 ft wind......SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 SE 8 SE 8 SE 10
Wind gust.......11 11 11 12 12 14
Mix hgt (ft)....5800 5100 1700 BLW100 300 200
Haines index....4 4 5 5 4 4
VIndx kt-ft/100.58 66 22 0 4 4
Ceiling (kft)...7.2 5.1
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
likely early in the morning. Rain showers late
in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 64.
RH..................Min 48 percent.
Dewpoint............40 increasing to 44 late in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 13 to 18 mph.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2900-4400 ft AGL
late in the morning.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (56.0-368.0) increasing to
excellent (1156.0).
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.24 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......MISSING.
TIME (CDT) 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM
Sky (%).........31 45 43 57 86 91
Weather cov..... LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 60 60 60 90 90
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............45 49 58 61 60 56
Dewpoint........39 40 42 42 41 44
RH..............81 70 55 48 49 63
33 ft wind......SE 14 SE 14 SE 17 SE 18 SE 18 SE 16
20 ft wind......SE 11 SE 11 SE 14 SE 14 SE 14 SE 13
Wind gust.......17 17 21 21 21 19
Mix hgt (ft)....300 700 2200 3300 3700 4300
Haines index....4 4 5 5 6 5
VIndx kt-ft/100.6 17 67 106 110 121
Ceiling (kft)...
$$
Forecaster...Voss
Requested by...Kyle Goll
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413215.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.goll@usda.gov