746
FXUS66 KMTR 050850
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
150 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 104 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Isolated post frontal showers will continue through Sunday morning
with decreasing intensity. While the next couple days will be
chilly, a gradual warming trend will bring temperatures above
normal by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 104 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

The cold front has been quite progressive over the last 24 hours
and is now near the CA/Mexico border. The cold air left behind
has brought the 1000-500 mb thickness into the mid 530 dm range.
This will cause surface temperatures to drop into the low 40s for
most areas away from the immediate coast or bay shore. This cold
air is also causing some instability, with the low level lapse
rates around the conditionally unstable threshold of 6.5 C/km. As
such, isolated showers are expected to continue through the
morning. The cold air is also drier, and by mid-day there will not
be enough moisture to support convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 104 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

A significant warming trend is in store this week as an upper
level ridge forms over the Eastern Pacific. As an example, the
high temperature at Santa Rosa on reached 58F on Saturday and is
expected to reach 84F by Thursday. A marine layer will likely
develop under the high pressure and keep coastal areas cool,
although the low-level moisture doesn`t seem to support
significant fog or stratus coverage. Overall, it will be a nice
week with increasing temperatures and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Post-frontal clearing will allow for VFR conditions and breezy
westerly/northwesterly winds through the TAF period. Rain showers
will be possible through Sunday morning, particularly for MRY and
SNS.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy westerly flow. VFR and
westerly winds to prevail through the TAF period with gusts up to
20 knots to be expected.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...As rain showers continue to traverse into
Monterey Bay, currently VFR with breezy easterly flow at MRY and VFR
with breezy westerly flow at SNS. VFR conditions and
westerly/northwesterly winds to prevail through the TAF period with
rain showers possible through Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1047 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes continue with isolated
showers over the coastal waters possible into Saturday night. Dry
conditions return and winds will diminish slightly beginning
Sunday  from a moderate to fresh breeze to a moderate breeze.
Gusty  northwesterly to northerly winds will return by the middle
of the  work week, continuing into the late week, as upper level
ridging and  surface high pressure builds.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Monday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Kennedy

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