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000
FXUS63 KOAX 210418
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1118 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to drop to or below freezing this
  morning and tomorrow night.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday
  night into Tuesday morning. Highest probabilities (60%
  chance) of rain will be south of I-80.

- Another potential storm system will may bring chances for
  precipitation regionwide Thursday and Friday. There remains uncertainty
  in timing and details of this storm system. These details
  will become more clear over the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Tonight and Sunday:

Surface high pressure will pass overhead through the night. With
mostly clear skies and light winds, we will hoist yet another freeze
warning for the entire forecast area as temperatures drop to or just
below freezing. It does look like this could be the the last of
the freeze products for a while. Return flow will be slow to
increase on Sunday which should keep winds fairly light but will
limit mixing. Highs on Sunday are forecast to max out in the low
60s and with the light wind, Sunday should be a beautiful day.

Monday:

Southwesterly low-level flow quickly increases overnight Sunday into
Monday ahead of an approaching weak shortwave dropping into the
northern Plains. This will send a cold front into the region Monday
afternoon and evening. Soundings ahead of this boundary show very
dry low-levels but once the atmosphere saturates behind the
boundary, showers and a few thunderstorms should become more likely
Monday evening into Tuesday morning as the boundary slides southeast
through the area.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

A secondary cold front will move into the area Tuesday ahead of a
stronger piece of upper level energy. This will bring slightly
cooler temperatures and stronger northwest winds. Gusts could be on
the order of 30+ mph Tuesday afternoon. Surface high pressure builds
into the area Wednesday with weak southerly flow during much of the
day. Wednesday should be another very nice day.

Thursday and Friday:

Southerly low-level flow strengthens overnight into Thursday morning
with large scale upper-level ridging over the central Plains
while a strong shortwave moves east/northeast across the Four
Corners region. Model guidance continues to produce a much more
active pattern into the early part of the weekend with strong
low-level moisture return ahead of the approaching western
shortwave. Although uncertainty in the details regarding
potential storms remains high, there is increasing trends
towards active weather Thursday night and Friday as the
shortwave closes off and the potent upper low moves across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with clear skies.
Expect northwest winds under 10 kts into the afternoon before
they become westerly and eventually southwesterly to southerly
Sunday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Sunday for IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...CA