462
FXUS64 KOHX 081758
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1258 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Earlier warm front now stationary and centered w-e just north of I-
40. This far northern area has served as the flood threat with
numerous advisories and warnings issued thus far. Flood reports have
been received mainly across the Robertson and Sumner county areas.
Energy along the boundary is working eastward with the bulk of the
activity now across the Plateau. To the south, airmass is hanging on
to a weak cap despite warming temps. Upstream however, 2 separate
slugs of energy will be pushing southeastward. This translates to 2
rounds of severe. The 1st will occur from 3pm to 6pm, with the 2nd
round in the 8 pm to midnight timeframe. All forms of severe weather
will be possible. Instabilities will be greatest across our south so
I would think the largest(non tornadic) hail would occur there. As
for rainfall amounts, the flood watch shall continue. Latest Hrrr
shows isolated storm totals of up to 6 inches across an area
stretching from far north central middle TN eastward across the
northern Plateau. Now models do hang onto the light to
moderate shower activity through 12Z to 18Z before ending.

Look for clearing skies Thursday night with cooler temps. Upper
troughing will feature a Friday shortwave with a few showers.
Saturday looks similar with an additional shortwave. The near term
temps will continue to run rather warm tonight and Thursday with 80s
for highs once again. Noticeably cooler by Friday morning with lows
back down into the 50s. We may seven see some 40s by Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

In the extended forecast, ridging will return for Monday. The next
system of interest will be for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Instability looks weak for now so mostly just looking at showers and
non severe tstms for now.

Extended temps will start out on the cool side but will warm back to
near 80 for highs by mid week. Overnight lows will work back into
the lower 60s as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Airmass is somewhat capped for now. However, a couple slugs of
energy will enable showers and thunderstorms to develop later this
afternoon as round 1, and then this evening as round 2. The
Currently high instability levels will only increase with time.
Thus, the full plethora of severe possibilities exists. For the
tafs will include temporary gusts to 40 kts with the stronger
storms. Look for showers to persist, generally after 06Z-09Z when
the storminess exits. IFR cigs and vsbys will of course accompany
the stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  86  58  72 /  90  30  10  10
Clarksville    66  83  54  70 /  80  10  10  10
Crossville     63  79  53  66 /  90  50  20  30
Columbia       66  85  56  72 / 100  30  10  10
Cookeville     65  80  54  67 /  90  50  20  20
Jamestown      63  79  53  66 /  90  50  20  30
Lawrenceburg   66  84  57  72 / 100  40  10  10
Murfreesboro   66  85  55  72 / 100  40  10  10
Waverly        66  83  54  71 /  90  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Grundy-
Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-
Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-Williamson-
Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....21