912
FXUS64 KOUN 052334
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
634 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

-Significant severe weather is expected across the entire
 area Monday early afternoon into the overnight hours

-Vary large hail (softball size or larger) and significant, long-
 tracked tornadoes, could accompany ANY storm that develops within
 Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas Monday afternoon and
 evening.

-Have your severe weather plan in place NOW and make sure you have
 multiple ways of receiving warnings!

12Z RAOBs this morning from FWD down to CRP show deep
tropospheric moisture at least through the 700-500 mb layer. A
closed mid-level low, currently approaching the Desert Southwest
via water vapor imagery, is forecast to evolve into an open wave
(negatively tilted) and move across the southern/central Plains
starting late Monday morning/early afternoon.

The aforementioned deep moisture profile is expected to advect
northward this evening and into Monday morning as lee cyclogenesis
along the Rockies strengthens ahead of the approaching mid-level
trough. This strong mass response will bring surface moisture,
characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints, into Kansas; and low
70s dewpoints north of the Red River by Monday afternoon. A
dryline will mix eastward just east the OK/TX border by the early
afternoon. The environment ahead of this dryline will be
characterized by strongly unstable and highly sheared environment.
As the mid-level wave moves eastward throughout the day, storms
are expected to initiate off the dryline during the early to mid
afternoon. While coverage of storms still is uncertain, any storm
that does form will be capable of producing very large hail and
significant, long-tracked tornadoes.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Monday Night: Significant severe weather is expected to continue
through evening hours as a nocturnal low-level jet increases after
sunset. This LLJ will increase low-level shear, which will
increase the tornado potential will any storm that is ongoing.
Storms are expected to move out of the area by late Monday night
(after midnight). A few storms may produce localized flash
flooding, especially across areas that have received multiple
inches of rain over the last several days.

Tuesday: Could see a lull in activity Tuesday as the main wave
lifts northward.

Wednesday: A cold front will move in Wednesday morning and will
make it to southeastern Oklahoma by the mid afternoon. Dewpoints
ahead of the cold front are expected to be in the mid to upper
60s. Thunderstorms are expected along this boundary in the
afternoon and evening timeframe. Given the shear and instability,
a few severe storms are possible as well across the southeastern
portions of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening with large
hail and damaging winds as the primary threat.

Through the rest of the week and into the weekend, it seems as
though for now we will see a lull in thunderstorm activity.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Intermittent MVFR this evening, with most terminals going back to
prevailing MVFR after 04-06Z, with IFR/LIFR likely in low stratus
and fog central and north central Oklahoma overnight through
daybreak as warm front lifts northward over those areas. Winds
veer to southerly overnight and increase substantially tomorrow as
cigs rise through the day. TSRA/+TSRA development still expected
late tomorrow, but will not be included in this issuance as any
terminal impacts just beyond this forecast valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  80  54  82 /   0  50  30   0
Hobart OK         61  86  52  84 /  10  40  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  64  85  57  83 /   0  20  10   0
Gage OK           58  87  48  85 /  10  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     58  80  51  80 /  10  70  60   0
Durant OK         63  82  68  86 /   0  40  40   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11