467
FXUS63 KPAH 300522
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/storms will precede a cold front`s passage tonight.
  Efficient/heavy rains will be the primary hazard with 1-2"
  rain totals over portions of western Ky possible.

- Seasonally warm temperatures peak about 10 degrees above
  normal in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with
  otherwise upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated through the
  remainder of the forecast.

- Rain chances are best with storm system passages tonight,
  Friday, and again late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A cold front will make slow west-to-east passage tonight.
Along/ahead of it, showers/storms advance and expand and we`ll
eventually see them come to an end in west-to-east fashion with
the fropa. Until then, some lightning and locally efficient/at
times heavy rains are possible hazards. Some 1-2" totals may
occur in portions of western Ky, but beyond localized/prone area
flood issues, our slightly to moderately dry ground conditions
should be able to handle that amount of rain. Clouds will clear
shortly thereafter, but seeing how this process takes us thru
much of the night, there is some potential for a wet near
surface layer to develop some fog or low clouds toward daybreak
as skies clear/winds become light. This may linger clouds into
early tmrw morning before daytime heating breaks the inversion
and mixes everything out and drier conditions onset for the mid
week. Temps remain on the warm side of seasonal with upper 70s
to lower 80s tmrw climbing toward the middle-upper 80s for
Wednesday-Thursday. The cold front`s passage draws dew points
down into/thru the 50s tmrw, but they`ll return to the lower 60s
by mid week, just as we are heating up again. That means daily
rain chances reappear by Thursday, as our upper ridge moves
east and troffing in the High Plains moves our direction. One
wave`s passage by week`s end spikes pops Friday, then a relative
pause occurs til more active weekend chances set up within a
belt of southwesterlies aloft that continues the fetch of
warm/moist air. Temps/dew points mirror earlier in the week when
60s back off to 50s dew points before returning to the 60s
again, with temps in the 70s again Friday returning to around
80 for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A challenging forecast through early Wednesday morning with low
clouds and dense fog likely to persist and/or develop. With
gradual clearing, VLIFR conditions in dense fog should develop
across much of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and far
western Kentucky, including KMVN/KCGI/KPAH. Further east, low
clouds are forecast to prevail across southwest Indiana and the
Kentucky Pennyrile, including KEVV/KOWB. However, confidence is
lower in this area, and if low clouds clear out sooner than
expected, dense fog may become an issue as well.

The low clouds and fog should erode through the morning, paving
the way for a mostly clear sky by afternoon into Wednesday
night. Light and variable winds through midday will trend more
southerly around 5 knots from west to east during the afternoon
and into Wednesday night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...RJP