Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280652
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
152 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost and a light freeze is expected early this
  morning.

- A warming trend commences thereafter, returning well above
  normal temperatures by this weekend, with highs from the
  middle 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday through Monday. Fire
  danger will be heightened over parts of the region both
  afternoons today and tomorrow.

- Rain chances return to the forecast this weekend into early
  next week. The best chances for rain and storms will be along
  a cold front that will approach Monday and make passage
  sometime Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will be breezy with
  its approach and passage, and locally heavy rain is possible
  with its thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Surface high pressure settles overtop the PAH FA, and along
with the cool start day temps, will promote a widespread frost
early this morning. Even as the center of the ridge migrates a
little to the south/east, centering over the Tennessee Valley
during the day, winds will remain light, less than 15 mph. This
mitigates otherwise heightened fire danger, particularly in the
SEMO Ozarks, where relative humidity drops to the mid 20s
percentile and fuels remain dry.

As the high continues its southeastward drift through Friday,
the gradient tightens up here as low pressure takes shape and
approaches from the west. Winds will crank up accordingly, and
this will heighten fire danger again, this time mostly across
Kentucky forestry from the LBL eastward, where RH drops into the
upper 20s percentile and fuels are very dry. West of there, dew
points are creeping up enough on the return flow southerlies to
keep minimum RH above 30% for the most part. Highs in the lower
60s today should bump up about 10 degrees Friday thanks to the
warm advection and overall height rise.

The models track that first wave of low pressure to our north,
along a boundary that lays out, heading into the weekend. The
blend wants to paint some small pops in our north as this
occurs, and we won`t argue slight chance mentions mainly
along/north of I-64.

As the weekend wears on, convection along the boundary sags it a
little further southward, even as more energy in the Plains
portends another wave of low pressure`s ride along it/this
direction. The blend picks up on this by increasing/spreading
pops a little higher/further southward, but still mostly in the
slight to low chance range, focusing in our north and east. We
like a little better chance for thunder then, Saturday night
into Sunday, as the boundary is further south and dew poiints by
then start to flirt with 60 degrees. It looks like there may be
several hundred Joules of MUCAPE in the lower 1 KM to work with.
Unseasonably warm daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to
near 80 degrees Saturday-Monday.

Monday gets breezy as the next big wave of low pressure lifts
out of the Plains and drives a cold front our direction. Pops
spike along its passage Monday night. The broader long wave trof
appears positively tilted with best convective chances breaking
north (closer to the low) and south (where better instability
exists). PW`s pop toward the 90th percentile at 1.25", and WPC
paints the northern reaches of the FA under a MRGNL risk for
excessive rainfall.

Brisk winds continue with fropa Monday night-Tuesday, and the
upper long wave trof`s passage soon follows. That`ll lead to a
cooler/drier air mass replacement with a mid week cooldown
closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Surface high pressure settles slowly overtop, then to the south
of the FA over this flight forecast. Visual Flight Rules will
reign as light southerlies make their return during the day,
with the high pressure ridge eventually centering over the
Tennessee Valley.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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