Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
972 FXUS65 KREV 050954 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 254 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After a chilly Sunday, a slow warming trend will continue through the remainder of the forecast period. The best chances for precipitation will be today, and also Monday along the NV/OR border, northeast CA, and the Sierra mostly from the Lake Tahoe area northward. Dry weather then returns for the rest of the week. We`ll see enhanced westerly winds today into Monday, with mostly light winds afterward. && .DISCUSSION... As of this writing, radar imagery is picking up some light to moderate snow showers stretching from Alpine County northward into Lassen County. High-resolution models and the HREF show this persisting through around 6-8 AM this morning with additional accumulations of 1-4". Also, light snow showers persists from central Washoe County eastward into Pershing County, and will continue through around 6-8 AM. Between a trace to 2" of snow is conceivable for those locations. After a cold start to the day, temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 40 to low 50s in western NV. We`ll see mostly upper 30s to low 40s in the Sierra and northeast CA. It will be breezy this afternoon, with westerly winds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40-45 mph. This will cause choppy conditions on area lakes, and a Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for this afternoon. Remnant rain/snow showers are also likely (50-70%) into the early afternoon for Surprise Valley and northern Washoe with up to an additional 1". So, we`ve checked all the boxes to remain indoors today! Looking at the evolution of the synoptic pattern this week, from Monday into Wednesday ensemble guidance places a positive tilted long-wave trough extending from the southern Great Basin into the central Rockies. This pattern is then followed by a REX block that sets up across the western US from Thursday onward into next weekend. What does this all mean weather-wise? On Monday, a weak system riding along the periphery of the aforementioned trough will quickly move through the northern Great Basin. In addition to enhanced west to northwesterly winds, there is a 10-20% chance of rain and snow showers in the Sierra north of I-80, with the best chances for precipitation in Surprise Valley and northern Washoe (40-60%). Under the aforementioned long-wave trough, will have a slow warmup with below average temperatures until Wednesday. Temperatures then rebound back above average by next weekend along with dry conditions. -McKellar && .AVIATION... Light to moderate snow showers will continue through around 15-17Z this morning from Lake Tahoe northward into Lassen County, including Sierra terminals KTRK and KTVL. Additional accumulations of 1-4" are possible. Low chances (10%) for a stray snow shower this morning at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV. IFR/MVFR ceiling and visibilities likely until around 15-17Z for KTRK and KTVL. Also expect IFR/MVFR conditions in precipitation and mountain obscurations in the Sierra through around 18Z. West/Northwest winds will increase once again this afternoon for all area terminals. Look for sustained winds 15-20kts with gusts topping 30kts. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning NVZ002. Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ004. CA...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning CAZ072. && $$