231
FXUS61 KRLX 101826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
226 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler weather into the weekend. The chance for rain showers
again Saturday afternoon as an upper level system crosses.
Temperatures will climb to average or above starting Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

Drier air associated with high pressure was allowing clearing to
slowly edge through the middle Ohio Valley this afternoon, while
clouds and showers persisted farther east. Improvement should
continue into tonight, with the showers ending as a mid-upper
level short wave trough exits by sunset.

Clearing and light wind tonight per high pressure ridging into
the area from the southwest will allow areas of valley fog to
form, but there may also be enough residual low level moisture
for low clouds to form before dawn Saturday. Either or should
dissipate after daybreak Saturday.

Clearing tonight may allow night owls to catch some aurora
activity if they head away from city lights to somewhere with a
clear view of the northern sky. Head to the Space Weather
Prediction Center`s website for more info on the G4 Geomagnetic
Storm Watch: swpc.noaa.gov.

Another mid-upper level short wave trough is likely to bring a
band of showers across the area from west to east on Saturday.
Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon as the
atmosphere destabilizes per mid level cooling in concert with
daytime heating. A mid level inversion should be just high
enough for cells to grow tall enough for charge separation, and
even small hail per dry entrainment, which will also promote
gusty winds. Echo top temperatures should lower into the -20s C
at least across the north.

Central guidance reflects surface temperatures modestly below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

Remaining precipitation largely exits to the east by daybreak Sunday.

Ridging building into the region then yields mainly dry conditions
through the day Monday amidst a warm-up. Deep southwesterly flow
associated with the next southern stream system will begin to advect
moisture back into the region Monday afternoon but any precipitation
is expected to hold off until Monday night

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

Upper level forcing in the form of an upper low emerging from the
Central Rockies arrives Monday night into early Tuesday morning
yielding an uptick in precipitation coverage. The risk for severe
storms through this period appears low given limited opportunity for
surface heating and poor mid-level lapse rates. As flow weakens
Tuesday night into Wednesday, could see some slower moving storm
cores that could present a risk for some localized water issues, and
WPC has painted a marginal risk for this over the region.

Broader scale, but still transient ridging returns Thursday with any
lingering risk for showers and storms becoming primarily diurnally
driven. The next synoptically driven chance of precipitation arrives
late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

IFR to low MVFR conditions in the mountains and MVFR conditions
at CRW and HTS will gradually improve this afternoon while CKB
and PKB should remain VFR. Scattered showers east of the Ohio
River may also interrupt improvement with brief MVFR conditions,
before dissipating late today.

Clearing edging southeastward through the middle Ohio Valley
this afternoon will continue across the remainder of the area
tonight. This will allow valley fog to form east of the Ohio
River, which could lower to IFR. However, low clouds could form
with IFR to MVFR ceilings, interrupting the fog. Either or
should dissipate after daybreak Saturday, allowing VFR
conditions. However, an upper level system is likely to bring
showers into the area later Saturday morning, with thunder also
possible near or just beyond the end of the TAF period Saturday
afternoon.

Northwest surface flow, gusty here and there this afternoon,
will become calm to light and variable tonight, and then west
southwest on Saturday, becoming gusty late Saturday morning.
Light north to northwest flow aloft through tonight will become
light to moderate southwest on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling and visibility restrictions
may vary from forecast. Timing and extent of fog or low stratus
tonight may vary from forecast. Winds will fluctuate this
afternoon and Saturday.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected currently.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM