Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230837
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
337 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to locally significant fire danger Sunday, especially
  east of Springfield.

- Winds increase Sunday and especially Sunday night with speeds
  of 20-25mph and gusts of 35 to 45 mph.

- High chances (80-90%) of widespread showers and a few
  thunderstorms Sunday evening through Monday. Highest rainfall
  amounts east of Highway 65.

- Much cooler temperatures with several chances for below
  freezing low temperatures Tuesday-Thursday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a split flow pattern with both
the cold northern stream flow and the moist southern stream flow
splitting the area. A shortwave trough has pushed east of the
area with mid level ridging building in from the west. The next
system to affect the area could be seen just off the western US
coast. Low level cold air advection continues across the area
with high pressure building south into Minnesota. The cold
front that moved from has pushed all the way to the Gulf Coast.
An expansive area of clouds continues across the area and will
be tough to erode given the low level flow over the Ozark
Plateau. Temps have dropped into the middle to upper 30s with
continued wind gusts up to 30mph making it feel more like the
middle 20s.

Today through Tonight: As stated above, these low level clouds
will take time to erode however HREF guidance indicates that by
late morning we should begin to see some clearing with partly
cloudy skies during the afternoon as high clouds move in from
the west. The colder start and morning clouds will temper high
temperatures with NBM guidance generally showing highs in the
middle to upper 50s. Wind speeds should decrease during the day.
Winds will begin to switch around to the east/southeast tonight
as high pressure slides through the Great Lakes and low pressure
develops near Colorado. High clouds will continue to move
through and expect low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower
40s. Valleys and typically colder spots east of Springfield will
see low temps in the lower 30s.

Sunday: Southwest flow aloft will develop across the central US
as that shortwave energy moves into the Rockies. Soundings and
HREF data suggests a large amount of mid and high level clouds
during the day however some filtered sun will occur (HREF data
shows this during the late afternoon). Moisture return will be
slow given the trajectory from the southeast and we continue to
go on the lower side of guidance with dewpoints. Low pressure
will begin to strengthen across western Kansas and we should see
gusts of 30-35 mph develop during the day. There is relatively
small spread in high temps in the NBM data with most places
reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s. The winds and slow moisture
recovery will create areas of elevated to locally significant
fire danger during the afternoon, especially east of
Springfield. The mean RH from the NBM (likely a little too high)
during the afternoon is around 25-30% east of Springfield.
Therefore we will need to monitor this fire danger during the
afternoon and evening. Further west, across southeast Kansas and
western Missouri, an area of elevated showers will begin to
move in late in the afternoon or evening however many locations
will remain dry during the daytime hours Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Sunday Night through Monday: Models continue to suggest that a
negatively tilted shortwave will move into Kansas during the
evening and overnight hours with a 985-990mb surface low
sliding northeast across Kansas and on into Nebrasks and Iowa.
The 00z HREF does not go out far enough at this time but does
show probs/paintball of thunderstorms that develop across
central Kansas by Sunday evening. Instability drops off
substantially with eastward extent towards the area therefore
currently looks like a weakening batch of showers and storms
moving through the northwest half of the area overnight.

Models also continue to show a 50-60kt low level jet across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight. While we are not
as confident in these winds mixing down to the surface,
especially given the time of day, the overall pressure gradient
will be strong. Latest NBM continues to show 80-90% chances of
wind gusts greater than 45mph across localized areas west of
Springfield. Therefore we may need a Wind Advisory for the
western half of the area and will monitor that for future
updates.

The latest guidance has begun to slow down the overall frontal
passage on Monday and this appears to be due to the upper level structure
becoming more neutral. Guidance is showing a north to south
batch of precip, mainly centered from central Arkansas into
south central Missouri that lasts for much of the day. NBM
continuing to show 80-90% chances of rainfall across most of the
area. Severe weather chances continue to look very low, mainly
due to the lack of instability. NBM continues to show less than
a 10% chance of surface CAPE over 500j/kg. Even an inspection of
elevated CAPE potential does not look impressive as a secondary
area of low pressure develops south of the area.

Given the slower frontal passage, rainfall amounts still look
highest to the east of Springfield. The latest ECMWF EFI data is
showing a potential heavy rain area across south central
Missouri. Here are the latest probs which have increased some
east of Springfield:

> 0.25": 40-60% (west of Hwy 65); 60-90% (east of Hwy 65)
> 0.50": 60-80% (east of Hwy 65)
> 1.00": 40-80% (east of Hwy 65)
> 2.00": 20-40% (eastern Ozarks)

The flooding potential currently remains low/limited as CREST
soil moisture remains low, vegetation is beginning to increase
and the lack of instability. That being said, if rainfall
amount probs increase then we will need to reassess. Rainfall
looks to end late Sunday evening.

Tuesday through Friday: Behind the early week system, a large
trough looks to remain across the center of the country with
much cooler temperatures and dry air aloft. Overnight
temperatures look to range in the upper 20s and 30s for this
timeframe. With relatively light winds and partly clear skies
expected, there could be some freezing potential. Wednesday
morning currently appears to be the coldest with a 70-80 percent
chance of temps dropping below 32 degrees and a 20-40 percent
chance of 28 degrees or less. Those with sensitive outdoor
vegetation/early season growing will need to stay updated on the
forecast.

Considerable uncertainty exists by the end of the
week as ensembles have timing and location differences with
shortwave energy that moves into the Rockies. Therefore
confidence is low in the current precip chances for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

MVFR ceilings have built into the sites and confidence is high
that it will last through 14-16Z. Clouds should then lift back
into VFR by late morning and afternoon with high clouds at times
during the afternoon and evening. North winds with gusts around
20kts will continue through this morning however winds will
shift to the east during the afternoon and the southeast towards
the end of the TAF period. No precipitation is expected through
the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield


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