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000
FXUS66 KSGX 161613
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
913 AM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The warming trend will continue through Wednesday with high
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average for inland areas on
Wednesday. A weak low pressure system moving inland through
southern California will bring cooling for Thursday and Friday and
deepening of the marine layer with night and morning coastal low
clouds spreading into portions of the valleys for Thursday morning
and inland across most of the valleys for Friday morning. There
will also be gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and
deserts for Wednesday afternoon and night and Thursday afternoon
and night with the stronger gusts to around 50 mph. Warming for
Saturday and Sunday with weak high pressure aloft, then a cooling
trend through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.Morning Update...
Warming temperatures this morning are mainly in the 50s for many
areas across SoCal, with the exception of the lower desert and
mountainous terrain. High temperatures will be noticeably higher
today than yesterday with plentiful 60s and 70s for many, as well
as 80s and 90s for the Inland Empire and lower deserts. Mostly
sunny conditions are expected today with patchy low clouds and fog
impacting coastal locations through Wednesday morning with low to
moderate confidence.

No major forecast changes this week. Slight cooling for the
middle of the week will occur as a trough passes by, which will
also bring breezy conditions across the mountains and deserts.
Another ridge off the coast will strenghten by the weekend, which
will lead to another rise in temperatures and continued dry
weather.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Satellite imagery early this morning shows a few high clouds
moving eastward across the area and a few patches of low clouds
over the coastal waters. A few of those might extend to near the
coast into this morning.

The warming trend will continue for today and Wednesday with the
greatest warming today of 10 to 15 degrees for the inland valleys
onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains as the marine layer
becomes shallower. The deserts will warm another 5 or so degrees
on Wednesday. A weak coastal eddy may develop for late tonight
into Wednesday morning with a little greater coverage of low
clouds and fog near the coast. Not much change in high
temperatures near the coast on Wednesday with the valleys only
another degree to two warmer than today.

For Thursday, onshore flow will strengthen and high pressure
aloft weaken as a weak low pressure system moves toward southern
California. High temperatures will be a few to around 5 degrees
cooler than Wednesday. The marine layer will be deepening with
coastal low clouds spreading into portions of the valleys for late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There will also be
increasing high clouds for late Wednesday night and Thursday

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
The cooling trend will continue into Friday with Friday high
temperatures a few degrees cooler than Thursday, a few to around 5
degrees below average for the coast and valleys and around 5
degrees above average for the deserts. Coastal low clouds for
Thursday night into Friday morning will spread inland across most
of the valleys.

For next weekend, high pressure aloft near the West Coast will
bring warming for Saturday and Sunday with Sunday high
temperatures a few degrees above average near the coast and 8 to
12 degrees above average for inland areas, mostly in the 90s for
the lower deserts for Sunday. NBM has a 75 percent chance for Palm
Springs to have a high temperature on Sunday of 100 or higher.
That would still be well below the existing record high
temperature for the date of 107. Then a cooling trend into the
middle of next week as high pressure weakens.

&&

.AVIATION...
161600Z...Coast...Patchy low cloud coverage is expected to redevelop
tonight after 06Z. There is a 20% chance of CIG impacts to the
coastal TAF sites between 06-10z tonight. Chances increase to 40%
between 10-12z, and to around 60% after 12z. Confidence in the
duration of any CIGs is rather low. Bases at this time look to be
between 1000-1500 FT MSL.

Otherwise...Mostly clear skies with unrestricted vis will prevail
today and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A long-period swell from the southern hemisphere will build surf up
to 6 feet Wednesday into early Thursday, especially in Orange
County. This would generate a high rip current risk.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However, weather spotters
are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

MORNING UPDATE/PREVIOUS PUBLIC...APR/17
AVIATION/MARINE...Adams