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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210306
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1006 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Drier mid level air has begun to entrain SE into SE OK/extreme NW
TX and SW AR as of mid-evening, indicative of the rapid decrease
in post-frontal -SHRA per the mosaic radar imagery. Farther SE,
large scale ascent has increased within an area of increasing
diffluence ahead of upper troughing depicted on the evening water
vapor imagery over WCntrl TX, which has resulted in widespread
rains having spread E across N LA. This will be fairly short-lived
though as additional dry air entrainment will continue from the
NNW overnight, and as the better ascent begins to shift ESE into
SE TX/Cntrl and Srn LA. Even as the heavier rains diminish,
additional -SHRA redevelopment will remain possible overnight
especially over Lower E TX/N LA along/S of I-20, near the remnant
H850 trough which will slide slowly S over these areas through
daybreak Sunday.

Did have to make some adjustments to pops tonight, mainly to scale
back pops to slight chance over extreme NE TX/SE OK/Nrn sections
of SW AR, while keeping likely/categorical pops going farther SE.
Did speed up the lowering of pops from NW to SE overnight to
account for current trends as well as the position of the H850
trough, which resulted in a lowering of pops (to low/mid chance)
after 12Z Sunday across Lower E TX/N LA. Since the elevated
instability has diminished, have also lowered thunder mention to
isolated, while removing thunder mention tonight over the Nrn half
of the area.

Current obs indicate that the dry air entrainment has resulted in
improving cigs where the rains have ended, but ample elevated cigs
will persist overnight even as some of these cigs lift across more
of NE TX/extreme Nrn LA. Evenso, post-frontal cold advection will
be quite weak at best overnight even as the cold front continues
to drift S off the extreme SE TX/S LA coast, with temps not
falling much from the 02Z obs. Thus, have had to raise min temps
areawide, especially by as much as several degrees over SE OK/SW
AR, as the NBM continues to struggle with these post-frontal
temps. Should continue to see improving conditions after daybreak,
with possibly some return of the sun to portions of the region by
afternoon.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue
to spread eastward across the region affecting all TAF sites,
especially early in the period. Most of the heavier precipitation
and thunderstorms should be confined south of Interstate 20 into
Deep East Texas, including KLFK, eastward into Central Louisiana.
The precip should finally beginning to diminish from northwest to
southeast and moving completely out of the area by 21/12z. Flight
conditions will be highly variable, but IFR ceilings are
generally expected to prevail initially. Ceilings should gradually
lift through the day Sunday. The clouds should also begin to
scatter from north to south. VFR flight conditions should prevail
at all TAF sites by 21/20z.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  67  45  72 / 100  30   0   0
MLU  50  65  42  68 / 100  40   0   0
DEQ  48  65  37  70 /  30  10   0   0
TXK  48  66  42  71 /  90  10   0   0
ELD  48  65  39  70 /  70  20   0   0
TYR  48  65  44  71 / 100  20   0   0
GGG  48  65  42  71 / 100  20   0   0
LFK  51  66  44  72 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...09