Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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660 FXUS64 KSHV 290528 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Parameters are starting to come together for strong to severe storms this afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. So far today we have been relatively quiet, as outflow boundaries from convection west of the region may have stabilized our area. However, we have started to see some popcorn convection develop across the area with daytime heating. Just west of us, very strong to severe storms have developed between Temple and Mexia Texas along a remnant boundary. Short-term progs have these storms holding together and moving northeastward into the western half of the region over the next couple of hours. The Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch 158 for all of our East Texas counties along and south of Interstate 20 through 9 pm to account for these storms. Can`t rule out additional watches down stream as convection pushes eastward into our Louisiana zones after 9 pm. Again, all modes of severe will be in play, including flash flooding. The convection is expected to push through the area overnight and should be out of our warning area near lunch time Monday just ahead of a cool front. Can`t rule out some additional convection early Monday afternoon along that front, followed by quiet conditions. Not expecting a huge change in temperatures behind the front, but northerly winds should bring in a slightly cooler and drier airmass. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Quiet conditions will be short-lived as rain chances are expected to return by Tuesday afternoon. Zonal flow will become established over the region Tuesday, with several short-wave disturbances expected to move through the flow. The upper flow will transition to more southwesterly by mid-week, with rain chances continuing, as disturbances continue to move across the flow over the region. Eventually, another long-wave trough will shift out of the Rockies into the Plains, eventually dragging another cold front into the region on Friday. This front should clear the precip out of the region for next weekend, but not before bringing us more convection. Can`t rule out additional severe weather during the upcoming week of unsettled weather, along with excessive rainfall and additional hydro issues on area waterways. Seasonal temps look to return by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 For the 29/06Z TAFs, the line of showers and strong storms is continuing to progress slowly east across the ArkLaTex. TXK, TYR and GGG should see RA coming to and end within the next few hours. TSRA will continue to impact terminals east, gradually ending towards dawn or the morning hours for our furthest southeast airspace. MVFR CIGs look to descend to IFR levels towards dawn behind the departing storms before finally climbing back to VFR heights and clearing during the afternoon. South winds will become variable and lighter behind the storms overnight, eventually becoming more westerly and northwesterly tomorrow as a surface boundary passes through the region. Gusts of up to 25 kts will be possible early in the forecast period but will quickly drop off behind the departing storms. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 82 65 85 68 / 40 10 20 10 MLU 76 63 84 63 / 80 20 20 10 DEQ 81 58 83 62 / 10 0 10 10 TXK 82 62 84 65 / 20 0 10 10 ELD 78 60 85 61 / 70 10 10 10 TYR 83 64 84 67 / 10 0 20 10 GGG 83 63 84 67 / 10 0 20 10 LFK 85 65 85 68 / 30 10 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126- 136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...26