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000
FXUS64 KSJT 130715
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
215 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Warm and windy conditions will continue through today and into
tonight as high pressure continues to build across West Central
Texas and the pressure gradient remains tightened over the area.
Southerly winds will range from 15 to 25 mph today with gusts as
high as 35 mph at times today, which will gradually diminish
after sunset this evening. High temperatures today are expected to
reach into the mid 80s to near 90, and overnight lows are expected
to say in the upper 50s to lower 60s as cloud cover begins to
increase across the area overnight tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The main highlight continues to be the potential severe weather
threat on Monday. A strong low pressure system continues to be
depicted in the ECMWF and GFS model guidance for Monday evening.
Given the strength and track for this system, it appears that we may
see the potential for severe weather during this timeframe.
Precipitation chances continue to increase and are now at 50 to 60
percent for some locations given the consistent models runs
depicting this scenario. The best odds of receiving rain and seeing
severe weather are across the Big Country. The main hazards appear
to be large hail and damaging winds. The bulk of this system`s
activity still appears to be across north Texas and Oklahoma. We
will have to continue monitoring this potential activity for
additional details. Expect changes to this forecast as we get closer
to the event.

Otherwise, expect warming temperatures through the next several days
of the long term portion of the forecast. Highs in the 90s will be
possible for this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours, with some gusty
winds lingering through this evening as a strong low-level jet
keeps winds elevated across much of West Texas Texas. South to
southeasterly winds will range from 15 to 20 kts with gusts as
high as 30 kts through this afternoon. After sunset, gusts will
diminish for across most terminals by 03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     88  61  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  88  60  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    87  61  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   84  59  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  87  62  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       83  59  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       84  61  89  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...TP