461
FXUS62 KTBW 030856
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
456 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-Tonight)...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Other than a few clouds decorating the skies along the Nature
Coast, it is a mostly clear morning across the Florida Peninsula.
Ridging aloft and surface high pressure remains in place today.
This should keep light easterly winds in place with the afternoon
sea breeze shifting winds onshore. Slightly drier conditions are
anticipated which should limit how much activity, if any,
develops today. Most of the guidance keeps the highest chances
across souther parts of the state. In addition, afternoon
temperatures will be around 90 degrees, so residents and visitors
should stay hydrated to prevent any heat related illnesses.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-THU)...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

During the weekend, an upper level disturbance approaches the
stat, but it is expected to fall apart as it moves northeast.
As a result, moisture increase over the Peninsula, which should
support higher rain chances into Sunday. Then, Bermuda High
builds back in bringing very warm and much drier conditions
through the rest of the period. If materializes, well above normal
temperatures are possible with the potential for record breaking
highs by the middle of next week. Afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 90s and overnight lows near 70 degrees. East to southeasterly
winds prevail becoming westerly each afternoon behind the sea
breeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Easterly winds
prevail becoming westerly behind the afternoon sea breeze in most
terminals, except FMY/RSW/LAL. WInds become breezy through the day
but should decrease through the evening. Slightly drier
conditions should limit shower and storms activity but there is a
non-zero chance of isolated showers near southern TAF sites later
in the afternoon. Otherwise, no concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Area of high pressure remains in control over the Gulf waters
through the period. Fairly dry conditions are anticipated today.
Winds should remain 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less
making for pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea
breeze is expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening.
A weak front to approach portions of the area during the weekend,
but highest chances of rain are expected to be over land.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Persistent high pressure remains in control across fire districts
through the period. Slightly drier air should keep low chances for
showers and storms over the area today. Minimum humidities could
drop near critical levels, especially in central portions of the
Peninsula. Easterly winds prevail become onshore by the afternoon
through before shifting from the south during the weekend. Then, a
weak front increase moisture over the weekend and along with it
chances of rain into early next week. Interior locations should see
most of the activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  71  89  73 /   0   0  20  20
FMY  91  70  90  70 /  10  10  40  20
GIF  91  68  91  69 /   0   0  20  20
SRQ  90  71  89  71 /   0   0  20  20
BKV  92  64  91  65 /   0   0  20  20
SPG  88  73  87  74 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...ADavis