Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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123 FXUS62 KTBW 021758 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 158 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Broad upper ridging extends northeastward through the southeast U.S. and along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. By Saturday, the upper ridge moves near the Bahamas while weak troughing moves through the southeast U.S. This will be short-lived as the ridge builds back in by Monday and continues through most of next week. On the surface, high pressure near Bermuda ridges westward over Florida and will dominate the weather pattern through the week. There will be some minor north/south movements of the ridge axis during the forecast period as an area of low pressure moves north of the area over the weekend, but overall this ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the period. Rain chances will remain on the low side (20-40 percent) through the period, with the highest chances along the sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours. Above average temperatures are expected with daytime highs topping out in the mid 80`s along the coast to low 90`s over the interior through the first of next week. Overnight lows will dip only into the mid 60`s to around 70. A further warm up is expected by the middle of next week with mid 90`s possible over the interior. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Prevailing VFR conditions with winds less than 10 knots expected through the forecast period. Rain and storm chances remain on the low side, so will only hold VCTS at PGD/FMY/RSW from 21-03Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge westward over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico and will dominate the weather with mostly rain-free conditions through the week and into the weekend. Winds will remain 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea breeze is expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 High pressure builds in over the area and will dominate the weather through the period. A slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and storms will be possible the next few days, primarily over the along the sea breeze. Some critical RH values are possible over the interior, but winds are expected to remain below 15 mph, so no Red Flag Warning will be needed. Some high dispersions will also be possible on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 71 91 72 89 / 10 10 0 20 FMY 69 91 69 90 / 30 20 10 30 GIF 67 92 67 91 / 10 10 0 30 SRQ 69 90 70 89 / 20 10 0 20 BKV 64 92 64 90 / 10 10 0 20 SPG 74 88 74 87 / 10 10 0 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Hubbard