National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXXX10 KWNP 091231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 09-Apr 11 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 09-Apr 11 2024

             Apr 09       Apr 10       Apr 11
00-03UT       0.67         3.00         2.67
03-06UT       2.67         3.67         2.33
06-09UT       3.00         2.33         2.33
09-12UT       3.00         2.00         2.00
12-15UT       2.67         2.00         1.33
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.67         3.00         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2024

              Apr 09  Apr 10  Apr 11
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2024

              Apr 09        Apr 10        Apr 11
R1-R2           10%           10%           40%
R3 or greater    1%            1%           10%

Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
radio blackouts over the next three days. Primarily due to the
anticipated return of old Region 3615.