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000
FXXX10 KWNP 221231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 22-Apr 24 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 22-Apr 24 2024

             Apr 22       Apr 23       Apr 24
00-03UT       2.33         2.33         3.00
03-06UT       2.67         3.00         2.67
06-09UT       2.67         3.67         2.67
09-12UT       2.00         3.67         2.00
12-15UT       1.67         2.67         2.00
15-18UT       1.67         2.67         1.67
18-21UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
21-00UT       3.67         3.00         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2024

              Apr 22  Apr 23  Apr 24
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 22-24 Apr due to the flare potential of several regions on
the visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 21 2024 2152 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2024

              Apr 22        Apr 23        Apr 24
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 22-24 Apr.