441
FXUS63 KTOP 020531
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1231 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of thunderstorms moves across the area overnight with
  continuous storm chances into Thursday, especially in eastern
  KS.

- Drier into Friday before another system moves overnight Friday
into Saturday morning.

- Active weather returns again early next week with more chances for
rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Scattered thunderstorms have continued across much of northeastern
Kansas this afternoon along areas of 700mb WAA ahead of an
approaching mid level wave. A warm front is noted via surface
analysis beginning to move north in southeastern Kansas with a
dryline setting up in far southwestern Kansas and into the
Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. With the showers and thunderstorms
draping much of northeastern Kansas for much of the day,
temperatures have struggled to warm above the mid 50s while some
clearing in central and east-central Kansas has helped temperatures
warm into the upper 60s and low 70s. As we progress further into
this evening, a few storms may develop along the dryline in
southwestern Kansas and move towards eastern Kansas. Simultaneously,
lift along the north-moving warm front will help increase showers
and a few thunderstorms into the evening for much of the area. Not
expecting many storms along the warm front to be severe as better
instability should remain near the surface low in southwest Kansas.
That said, cannot rule out a few elevated storms becoming severe
with large hail as the main threat. The best chance for these will
be in central Kansas where better ingredients for severe weather
will reside. Later this evening and overnight into Thursday morning,
convection that develops just ahead of the shortwave in southwestern
Nebraska should move east along the KS/NE border, increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms again. If these storms can become
organized and develop a balanced cold pool circulation, could see
the possibility of some gusty winds (some possibly severe), and hail
developing with this line of convection. This will need to be
monitored over the next several hours to see how this convection
evolves. Cannot rule out a brief QLCS tornado if this line has a
very balanced cold-pool, but does not seem overly great for this to
occur as 0-3 km shear vectors may be fairly line-parallel.

By Thursday morning, the surface trough will push east with modest
theta-e advection along and ahead of the surface cold front.
Persistent elevated thunderstorms and showers will continue into
Thursday afternoon as that boundary pushes east across the area. PWs
ahead of the boundary between 1.25-1.5" point to some localized
heavy rainfall along the boundary so a flooding concern may develop,
especially with training of storms. Will continue to monitor for the
need of any hydro headlines.

Surface ridging builds in behind the cold front into Thursday
evening and will bring drier conditions in for Friday. Dry weather
will again be short-lived as flow shifts back to the south by Friday
afternoon, advecting in moisture ahead of the next wave to impact
the central Plains. The wave and surface boundary sweep across the
area Friday night into Saturday morning with the possibility of
seeing strong to severe storms. Another brief break in active
weather Sunday before another trough ejects into the region Monday
and into Tuesday with severe weather possible again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR expected prior to tsra moving through the terminals in the
08Z to 12Z time period. Expect mvfr cigs along with mvfr vsbys
and some ifr vsbys with the storms. MVFR cigs look to persist
through 20 to 22Z at TOP and FOE with some additional SHRA
expected. MHK looks to become vfr after 18Z. Southerly winds
around 12kts at MHK will shift to the west to northwest winds in
the 13Z to 17Z time period. Winds shift at TOP and FOE after
16Z to 18Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Picha/53