Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 170309
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1009 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Overall the current forecast remains on track with showers
diminishing across southeast Oklahoma and a cold front currently
approaching the OK-KS border. Widespread cloudiness will continue
through the night with occasionally breezy northerly winds
developing behind the front. Other than minor changes to match
current trends, no significant changes were made with this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Subtle wave with broad warm advection corridor is supporting
widespread showers spreading toward E OK with a focused corridor
of thunderstorms nearer the Red River Valley. Precip will maintain
a steady eastward advance and decrease from north to south by
early evening with overall rainfall amounts remaining light. A
separate wave tracking ESE within the amplifying larger scale
eastern CONUS trough will maintain widespread cloud cover
overnight while ushering a cold front across the area overnight
through early Sunday. Cloud cover will help keep temps more mild
in the otherwise post frontal colder airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Clouds clear on Sunday with breezy northerly winds and cooler
temps area wide. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday night and
excellent radiation cooling conditions will allow for widespread
low temps into the lower 30s with a hard freeze possible across
far NE OK into far NW AR. Below normal high temps on Monday with
another freeze likely for portions of the area Monday night. Winds
will begin to increase and turn southerly Monday night so widely
varying low temps are expected.

Breezy and warmer conditions Tuesday with a large westerly
component to the wind limiting moisture return. The result will be
an increase in grassland fire weather concerns primarily across
northeast OK.

The flow aloft becomes less amplified by mid week and the upper
low currently over the southwest CONUS will weaken as it ejects
eastward across the Plains. Timing remains consistent with
increasing rain chances Wednesday and more so Wednesday night into
Thursday. A few thunderstorms are also likely during this period
however overall rainfall amounts continue to rather light with
heavier amounts further south across E TX.

A brief cool down as the Thursday wave passes before temps warm
back above normal with a potentially more unsettled pattern by
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR cigs will prevail tonight into Sunday morning, with rain or
spotty showers expected at KMLC and KFSM. Some scattering out of
the cloud is expected by Sunday afternoon, with north to northwest
wind picking up to around 20 kts in gusts as a front moves into
the area.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  63  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   52  65  36  54 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   51  65  35  55 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   43  62  27  52 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   44  61  27  49 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   44  58  28  47 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   49  62  32  51 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   41  58  27  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   49  63  33  53 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   54  65  38  56 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...43
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30


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