Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 142316
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
The main concern through the forecast period will continue to be
the threat for severe thunderstorms across much of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through tonight. Ongoing
thunderstorms currently extend along a line from near Holdenville
to south Tulsa to near Jay. Storms will be capable of all severe
hazards through the afternoon and evening hours, with large to
very large hail in excess of 2 inches the main threat. Low level
wind fields will gradually become more favorable for tornadoes by
late afternoon/early evening across southeast Oklahoma and into
western/northwest Arkansas as a low level jet intensifies over
the area. If storms remain discrete enough and the environment
remains undisturbed in those areas, than tornadoes will become
more probable toward sunset, mainly south of I-40 in eastern
Oklahoma extending northeastward into west-central/northwest
Arkansas.
Current storms will progress east southeastward through the
afternoon as a cold front works its way through the region.
Decreasing instability behind the frontal passage will limit the
severe potential as the front passes through, though some
lingering elevated storms could linger behind the front this
evening and overnight as isentropic ascent increases with the
increasing low level jet. Additional thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon across the open warm sector in southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. These will be the storms that could
pose the greatest tornado risk by late afternoon and into the
evening hours before storms begin to grow upscale and advance
southeastward through the night, exiting the area after midnight
tonight.
Cooler air along with breezy northerly winds will be ushered in
behind the front tonight with temperature dropping into the 40s
behind the front by Friday morning.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Relatively quiet conditions are expected through the rest of the
forecast period after the stormy day today. Cooler, but still near
average temperatures for this time of year are expected for
tomorrow behind the frontal passage, with gusty northerly winds
throughout the day dying off somewhat by sunset. Cool overnight
lows are forecast with some of the normally cooler locations
dipping into the mid to upper 30s by Saturday morning. A brief
warmup is expected on Saturday as subtle mid level ridging builds
into the area and temperatures rise to near 70 across the region.
A weak disturbance will move across northern Texas Saturday night
and a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the Red
River Saturday night. Severe weather is not expected with this
system. By SUnday, the mid level flow become much more amplified,
with northerly flow aloft ushering in another, stronger cold front
through the region on Sunday. this frontal passage is expected to
be dry as any appreciable moisture remains rather limited, but
much cooler temperatures will follow for Sunday night into
Monday. Mid level heights slowly rise into the middle part of next
week as an upper low meanders around the Desert Southwest and
deep mid level troughing settles in over the Southeast CONUS,
keeping our weather fairly quiet and mild through the rest of the
period. The upper low that will have been parked over the
Southwest for the better part of a week may finally get swept up
into the primary flow aloft and move out over the Plains by late
week, bringing more rain and storm chances to the region.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Thunderstorm impacts in the first few hours of the valid TAF
period at MLC and FSM will be the main aviation concern, with
additional periods of IFR/MVFR conditions possible through mid to
late evening due to thunderstorms on station. Thunderstorms
should shift south of these terminals by midnight. Winds will
shift to a northerly direction overnight at all sites following a
frontal passage. Expect a period of MVFR ceilings from late
tonight into tomorrow afternoon, with improvement mid afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 48 66 41 69 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 57 69 44 71 / 100 0 0 0
MLC 52 67 43 69 / 70 0 0 10
BVO 45 67 37 70 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 47 64 38 70 / 70 0 0 0
BYV 49 61 39 68 / 70 10 0 0
MKO 50 64 41 67 / 50 0 0 0
MIO 47 62 38 66 / 10 0 0 0
F10 49 64 42 67 / 40 0 0 10
HHW 56 67 46 69 / 90 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22