Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 131103
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
603 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Low cloudiness will increase early this morning and then decrease
by this afternoon. Gusty south winds will occur again today with
afternoon high temperatures warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop this
evening and continue into the overnight hours, and a strong to
severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. More widespread showers
and storms will hold off until Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening as a cold front approaches and then moves through the
area. Severe storms will be likely with this round of convection,
especially southeast of Interstate 44, and a tornado or two may
also occur, especially from southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas where wind fields will be most favorable. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible from southeast Oklahoma into
western Arkansas.

Showers and storms will be ending later Thursday night with cooler
temperatures expected Friday behind the cold front. A few showers
will be possible across far southeast Oklahoma late Saturday and
Saturday night, but any rainfall at that time will be light. A
second cold front will sweep across the area Saturday night and
early Sunday, with temperatures falling to near or below freezing
in some places by Monday morning. A quick warmup is expected by
Tuesday as south winds return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Low clouds are developing across portions of southeast OK and
northwest AR this morning, with CIGS of 1.5-2.5 kft expected for
terminals in the area. Patchy low clouds are also expected for the
terminals in northeast OK. Currently do not think that coverage
will be sufficient for low CIGS, but the potential will be
monitored. Either way, most areas will see decreasing low clouds
into the afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will develop after
sunrise with gusts to 20-30 kts. A few isolated thunderstorms may
develop this evening, but the probability is too low to include in
the TAFs (15-25% chance).

Overnight tonight breezy southerly winds will continue with SCT
low clouds for all locations. CIGs will redevelop for southeast OK
and northwest OK after 8Z Thursday morning. LLWS may also
redevelop for northeast OK. The risk for isolated showers and
storms will continue for this period (10-20% chance).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  63  79  48 /   0  20  50  30
FSM   79  63  80  56 /   0  30  80  80
MLC   77  64  79  51 /   0  20  70  60
BVO   81  60  79  45 /   0  30  30  20
FYV   78  60  77  48 /  10  20  70  70
BYV   77  62  78  50 /   0  20  60  70
MKO   77  63  78  49 /   0  20  70  50
MIO   78  61  76  46 /   0  30  50  40
F10   77  63  79  49 /   0  20  60  40
HHW   76  64  78  56 /   0  20  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06


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