Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 130928
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
428 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Low cloudiness will increase early this morning and then decrease
by this afternoon. Gusty south winds will occur again today with
afternoon high temperatures warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop this
evening and continue into the overnight hours, and a strong to
severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. More widespread showers
and storms will hold off until Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening as a cold front approaches and then moves through the
area. Severe storms will be likely with this round of convection,
especially southeast of Interstate 44, and a tornado or two may
also occur, especially from southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas where wind fields will be most favorable. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible from southeast Oklahoma into
western Arkansas.
Showers and storms will be ending later Thursday night with cooler
temperatures expected Friday behind the cold front. A few showers
will be possible across far southeast Oklahoma late Saturday and
Saturday night, but any rainfall at that time will be light. A
second cold front will sweep across the area Saturday night and
early Sunday, with temperatures falling to near or below freezing
in some places by Monday morning. A quick warmup is expected by
Tuesday as south winds return.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Light southerly winds will continue overnight with marginal LLWS
possible. The other concern overnight will be a gradual increase
in low clouds in the 1.5-3 kft layer. BKN coverage in this layer
will develop between 12-15Z for most locations.
During the day Wednesday the preponderance of guidance leans
towards low clouds breaking up by late morning or early afternoon
(with SCT coverage continuing) but it is possible (30-40% chance)
clouds do not thin as expected. Either way, low clouds will return
by the evening. A 15-25% chance of showers or storms exists
during the evening hours. This is too low to include in the TAFs
at this time. Winds will become gusty after 15Z Wednesday, with
gusts of 20-30 kts for most locations. Wind gusts will relax
slightly to 15-20 kts after sunset.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 80 63 79 48 / 0 20 50 30
FSM 79 63 80 56 / 0 30 80 80
MLC 77 64 79 51 / 0 20 70 60
BVO 81 60 79 45 / 0 30 30 20
FYV 78 60 77 48 / 10 20 70 70
BYV 77 62 78 50 / 0 20 60 70
MKO 77 63 78 49 / 0 20 70 50
MIO 78 61 76 46 / 0 30 50 40
F10 77 63 79 49 / 0 20 60 40
HHW 76 64 78 56 / 0 20 80 80
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06